非标准审计意见、信息分析成本和证券分析师行为——来自我国上市公司的经验证据  

Modified Audit Opinions, Information Processing Costs and Security Analysts＇ Behaviors： Empirical Evidences from China＇s Public Listed Companies

作　　者：田利辉[1] 周晓东[1] 周易[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学金融发展研究院

出　　处：《中国会计评论》2015年第4期487-506,共20页China Accounting Review

基　　金：教育部重大课题攻关项目(13JZD006)和教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-12-0288);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71272179)的支持;广义虚拟经济研究专项资助项目(GX2011-1018(Y))的成果

摘　　要：审计意见是鉴证上市公司的信息披露是否公允的专业意见，证券分析师是信息分析的职业人员。在我国上市公司中，审计意见的类型是否以及如何影响证券分析师的跟踪决定和盈余预测呢？本文回顾了审计需求理论，实证分析了审计意见类型对于分析师关注度及预测准确度的影响。检验结果表明，非标准审计意见导致分析师跟踪概率下降、跟踪的分析师人数减少及盈余预测误差加大。本文的实证发现支持了审计需求代理理论，而非审计需求保险理论。对比信息分析成本理论和声誉成本理论，我们发现信息分析成本对我国证券分析师行为具有主导影响作用。Audit opinions reflect whether the financial statements give a true and fair view in accordance with the regulations. Security analysts analyze financial statements and is sue earnings forecasts. Do audit opinions take influences on analysts＇ behaviors？ Our study analyzes the influence of modified audit opinions on analysts＇ coverage and forecast accuracy in the framework of audit demand theory. Using a sample of analyst forecasts during year 2004 to 2012, we find that modified audit opinions are associated with lower analyst coverage, in the aspects of both coverage probability and number of analysts following. Moreover, modifled audit opinions reduce analysts＇ forecasting accuracy, which indicates that, compared with reputation costs, information processing costs are of greater concern for analysts in China.

关 键 词：审计意见 证券分析师 信息分析成本 声誉成本 

分 类 号：F239.4[经济管理—会计学] F832.51[经济管理—国民经济]