张家港土地利用变化预测及生态响应  

Prediction Study on Zhangjiagang Land-use change and its Ecological Response

作　　者：雷亚龙[1] 陈菁[1,2] 孙伯明[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,南京210098 [2]南方地区高效灌排与农业水土环境教育部重点实验室,南京210098

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2016年第5期33-36,40,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201101022)

摘　　要：土地利用变化及其生态响应分析对区域的可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。以张家港2005和2012年土地利用数据为基础,构建Markov模型预测2019年和2026年土地利用状况,通过引入生态系统服务价值评估模型分析其产生的生态响应。结果表明:2005-2012年,土地利用类型发生变化的斑块面积达到9 996.12hm2,耕地和水域出现较大幅度的减少,主要转移为建设用地和园地;按照目前的土地利用变化趋势,2019-2026年建设用地面积将继续保持大幅度增加,水域和耕地面积继续减少,导致其生态响应为负,生态系统服务价值逐年降低,降低速率为1155.57万元/a,其中食物生产、气体调节、气候调节、水文调节、生物多样性保持和废物处理出现明显减少,一定程度上体现出研究区环境恶化、生态多样性减退等问题。政府应及时采取措施,加强耕地和水域面积的保护,同时降低建设用地扩张速率,改变目前土地利用变化趋势,保持生态系统健康状况。Land-use change and its response analysis has important practical significance to the sustainable development of the region.Based on the data of land use in 2005 and 2012,by constructing the Markov model and ecosystem service value table,its combined with the related general land use planning,and carries out dynamic simulation and prediction on the landscape pattern of Zhangjiagang and its ecosystem service value from 2019-2026.The results showed that between 2005-2012,changes in land use types plaque area of 9 996.12hm2,arable land and waters appear relatively substantially reduced,main transfer for towns and construction land and garden plot;According to the current Temporal and Spatial Trends,2019-2026,the construction area will continue to increase,water and arable land continues to decline.Leading to its ecological response is negative,and ecosystem service value reduced year by year,the rate is 11.555 7million yuan/a,including food production,gas regulation,climate regulation,hydrology regulation,maintain biodiversity and waste treatment significantly reduce,it may lead to the problem such as environmental deterioration,biodiversity loss in the study area.The government should take timely measures to strengthen the protection of arable land and water area,reduce the construction land expansion rate,change the present trend of land use change,keep the ecosystem health.

关 键 词：城镇化 土地利用 生态响应 MARKOV模型 

分 类 号：TV93[水利工程—水利水电工程] S275[农业科学—农业水土工程]