基于云模型的典型水文年选取研究  

Research on the Selection of Typical Hydrologic Year with the Cloud Model

作　　者：胡斌奇[1] 伍永刚[2] 成涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省电力公司电力调度通信局,长沙410007 [2]华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2016年第5期97-100,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

摘　　要：典型水文年的选取是水文特性分析的重要环节,也是水电站调度管理的基础性研究工作。为避免传统频率法计算过程中人为确定分类标准的主观性,引入云模型理论,利用云变换方法提取径流时间序列不确定性概念,并采用一种考虑幅度系数影响的概念跃升方法进行云综合,实现了对径流数据定性概念的自动划分。实例仿真表明,该方法所提取的概念中心与传统频率法得到的理论值相近,且基于云模型的概念表示能同时体现概念的随机性和模糊性,从而能更准确地描述流域水文丰枯特性。The selection of typical hydrologic year is an important element in the study of water resources dispatch,which also plays a key role in the analysis of hydrological characteristics.In view of the defect of human subjectivity in conventional frequency method,a novel method that based on cloud model is proposed.In this method,the cloud transformation is first used to extract the conceptual models of runoff time series.Then,the historical data are elastically classified to new concepts by using a new conception zooming method,which takes the influence of the magnitude coefficient into consideration.Simulation experiment results show that the concept center extracted by the proposed method is in close to that obtained by conventional method.Besides,the results are different in that the proposed method can also describe the concepts with uncertainty,which makes it more accurate for the analysis of hydrological characteristics.

关 键 词：水文典型年 云变换 概念跃升 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]