基于P-E-R模型城市人口承载力的判断与提升路径研究——以青岛市为例  

A Study of the Judgment and Improving Ways of the Urban Population Carrying Capacity Based on P-E-R Model——A Case of Qingdao City

作　　者：杨林[1] 刘耀雷[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学商学院,山东威海264209

出　　处：《经济与管理评论》2016年第3期139-145,共7页Review of Economy and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"老龄化条件下家庭人力资本投资的代际合作与竞争关系研究"(项目编号:71573158);山东省社会科学规划研究项目及山东社会科学院创新工程项目"新常态下山东省产城融合发展政策取向研究"(项目编号:15CCXJ01)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：人口承载力正在成为制约城市规模扩张的关键因素。青岛市城镇化水平不断提高的同时,人口规模与城市承载力之间的矛盾日益凸显。运用P-E-R模型,基于高、中、低三方案,分别测算青岛市2007-2013年经济人口承载力、资源人口承载力。研究发现:青岛市经济人口承载力高于资源人口承载力,产业发展以资源高投入为代价;经济人口承载力差异明显,未来就业潜力堪忧;自然资源接近或达到本地资源潜力极限,人口承载力亟需进一步提升。鉴于此,新型城镇化背景下,青岛市提高人口承载力的路径是:协同推进人口发展与产业转型升级,增强经济承载力;促进人口合理布局,提高空间承载力;统筹推进城乡生态保护,提高资源环境承载力。Population carrying capacity is becoming the key factor to restrict the expansion of urban scale.With the improvement of ur- banization level in Qingdao, the contradiction between population size and urban carrying capacity is becoming increasingly prominent. This paper calculates economic population carrying capacity and resources population carrying capacity of Qingdao from 2007 to 2013 respectively by using P-E-R model based on three schemes （high, middle and low）.The research shows that economic population car- rying capacity is higher than resources population carrying capacity and industrial development is at the expense of high resource con- sumption;the difference of economic population carrying capacity is obvious and future employment potential is worrisome;natural re- sources are close to or reach the limits of local resources potential and population carrying capacity desiderates to further improve. In view of this, the policy recommendations to improve population carrying capacity of Qingdao under New Urbanization background are as follows ： promoting population development and industrial transformation and upgrading to enhance economic carrying capacity; promoting rational distribution of population to improve space carrying capacity;coordinating the urban and rural ecological protection to enhance carrying capacity of resource and environment.

关 键 词：人口集聚 人口承载力 经济承载力 资源承载力 P-E-R模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]