美国再工业化对我国工业溢出效应研究  

The Study of American Reindustrialization Policy's Spillovers on Chinese Industrial Economy

作　　者：刘绘珍[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]郑州航空工业管理学院管理科学与工程学院,河南郑州450046 [2]航空经济发展河南省协同创新中心,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《郑州航空工业管理学院学报》2016年第3期50-56,共7页Journal of Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71271060);河南省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(2016-zc-023)

摘　　要：美国再工业化政策实际上就是对制造业产业链的重构,旨在着重打造产业链里的高附加值环节,重点发展高端制造业。美国再工业化对我国工业的重要影响主要表现在产业重构和市场竞争方面。依据2009年1月到2015年4月中美工业经济运行的主要月度数据进行实证分析,构建SVAR模型,研究美国再工业化对我国工业当期和滞后期的影响。结果显示:美国再工业化通过市场竞争的传导机制对我国出口的影响短期内是不确定的,长期影响较弱,而对我国的产出影响则是负面的。美国再工业化通过产业重构的传导机制中,减少对外投资对我国出口和产出会产生较大负面影响,增加产出对我国出口和产出则具有积极影响。长期来看,再工业化背景下,美国对中国直接投资对我国工业造成的冲击最大。This paper states the current situation and the policy of American reindustrialization,and concludes the effects of reindustrialized process on Chinese industrial economy. Thus,it puts forward the transmission mechanism of American reindustrialization,including： industry restructuring,and market competition. Based on Monthly data of Chinese and American major industrial economy from January 2009 to April 2015,it builds SVAR model to study the influence of American reindustrialization on the current and lagged Chinese industrial economy. The results show that： First,the influence of American reindustrialization by the transmission mechanism of market competition on Chinese exports in the short term is uncertain,the long- term influence is on the ebb; the influence on Chinese output is negative; Second,the influences of reducing foreign investment by the transmission mechanism of industry restructuring on Chinese output and exports are a greater negative,however,the influences of increasing output on Chinese output and exports are positive; Third,in the long term,in the context of reindustrialization,American direct investment on China has？ greatly？ affected our industry.

关 键 词：化 传导机制 结构向量自回归模型 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]