基于Copula函数的郁江与西江干流洪水遭遇概率  

Flood encounter probability of Yujiang River and main stream of Xijiang River based on Copula function

作　　者：甘富万[1,2] 韦吉华 刘欣[1] 黄永俊[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西大学土木建筑工程学院,广西南宁530004 [2]广西大学广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2016年第3期341-346,共6页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:51178124);广西重点实验室系统性研究资助项目(编号:2014ZDX011);广西大学科研基金资助项目(编号:土科基-2012-02)

摘　　要：为了计算郁江和西江干流洪水遭遇的概率,依据Copula函数理论及分析方法,利用实测洪水资料进行参数估计,建立了几种常用的Copula函数,并对它们拟合的效果进行了对比,最后选用Clayton Copula函数展开分析.结果表明,随着西江干流洪水等级的增加,郁江发生同一大洪水的条件概率增加的趋势不明显;郁江与西江大洪水遭遇的概率非常小,郁江和西江干流50年一遇以上洪水同时发生的概率不超过0.05%,在西江干流发生大于50年一遇以上洪水的条件下,郁江发生大于50年一遇以上洪水的概率仅为2.73%.该成果可为西江流域的防洪控制水库在制定联合调度规则时利用两江大洪水错开的特点,充分发挥水库的调洪能力提供依据.To calculate the flood encounter probability of the Yujiang River and main stream of the Xijiang River, parameters are estimated and Copula several functions are established according to measured flood data and Copula theory. The Clayton Copula function is chosen to analyze the encounter probability based on the fitting effect. The results show： The increasing trend of the Yujiang River flood is not obvious with the increase of the Xijiang River flood; the encounter probability of great flood of these two rivers is very small;the probability that the floods happening once in 50 years of these two rivers occur at the same time is less then 0.05% ;the probability that the flood happening once in 50 years of the Yujiang River occurs in the condition that the main stream of Xijiang River occures a flood happening once in more than 50 years is only 2.73%. This achievement can provide the basis about how to give full play to the flood regulating a- bility of the flood control reservoirs of Xijiang basin when making regulations of joint dispatching.

关 键 词：COPULA函数 洪水遭遇概率 郁江 西江干流 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]