不同气候变化情景下2070—2099年中国潜在植被及其敏感性  

Potential vegetation and its sensitivity under different climate change scenarios from 2070 to 2099 in China

作　　者：车彦军[1] 赵军[1] 张明军[1] 王圣杰[1] 齐月[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070 [2]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,兰州730020

出　　处：《生态学报》2016年第10期2885-2895,共11页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40961026);陕西省教育厅重点实验室科研计划项目(14JS010)

摘　　要：潜在植被作为当前气候条件、无人类干扰下,所能发育演替形成的最稳定、最成熟的一种顶极植被类型,能够反映立地植被发展的趋势。潜在植被的研究有助于人类了解植被与气候系统的作用机制,可为区域植被恢复工程和生态建设提供参考依据。基于综合顺序分类系统,利用A1B、A2及B1情景下2070—2099年气象数据对中国潜在植被进行了模拟,在不同气候变化情景下分析了未来中国潜在植被的空间分布和潜在植被对不同气候变化的敏感性。结果表明:(1)不同气候变化背景下中国潜在植被分布的规律具有相似性,但潜在植被类在总数和各情景下分布的面积存在差异性;(2)比较发现,中国的气候条件在20世纪和21世纪均不适宜炎热极干热带荒漠类(ⅦA)的发育;(3)中国潜在植被在3种气候变化情景下表现为敏感性的区域占到国土总面积的64.10%,在西北地区、北方地区、南方地区及青藏地区不同自然区敏感性地区所占各区的比例不同,分别为68.20%、70.82%、49.94%及66.59%。The potential natural vegetation is the most stable and mature climax vegetation type that achieves a final,balanced state without human interference under a given climate condition,and it can be used to reflect the dominant growing trend for local vegetation. Therefore,the investigation of the potential vegetation on a regional scale improves understanding of the interaction mechanism between vegetation and the climate system,and provides useful references for the restoration and construction of regional vegetation. With the support of Geographic Information System（ GIS）technology,the meteorological data in China under the scenarios A1 B,A2,and B1 between 2070 and 2099 were obtained,and the Comprehensive Sequential Classification System（ CSCS） was applied. The spatial distribution of potential vegetation under different climate change scenarios was simulated,and the sensitivity of future potential vegetation under different scenarios was analyzed based on the Comprehensive Sequential Classification System. The results show that（ i） the spatial patterns of China＇ s potential vegetation are generally similar under the three different climate change scenarios. Thehorizontal and vertical zonality of potential vegetation in China was identified and was very similar to the distribution of the existing natural surface vegetation. However,there are still spatial differences in some areas,such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where there were less potential vegetation types. Detailed differences also exist in type and area of the potential vegetation in China under the different scenarios. A total of forty potential vegetation types were simulated under the A1 B scenario,of which the ＂cold temperate perhumid taiga forest type（ IIF） ＂showed the widest distribution with an area of8.26 × 105km2 at 8.61% and the＂tropical arid tropical desert brush type（ VIIB） ＂had the smallest area at 1.35 × 105km2（ 0.01%）. Forty-one potential vegetation types were found under the A2 scenario,of which the ＂f

关 键 词：潜在植被 敏感性 综合顺序分类系统(CSCS) 情景 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]