基于遥感技术的人口估算——以西藏部分区县为例  

Population estimation based on remote sensing image:using Tibetan counties as an example

作　　者：周天财[1] 孙建[2] 于欢[1] 周青平[3] 

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学,四川成都610000 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [3]西南民族大学青藏高原研究院,四川成都610041

出　　处：《西南民族大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第3期262-267,共6页Journal of Southwest Minzu University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41101174)

摘　　要：随着遥感技术的发展,快速准确低成本的估算某地区总人口成为了可能。本文以研究区遥感影像目视解译得到的建筑物面积作为人口估算模型研究的媒介,对西藏9个区县建筑物面积与统计人口数据进行统计分析的结果表明,建筑物面积与统计人口数量之间的拟合度为0.836(P<0.05),表明其相关性显著;因此对两个变量回归分析,结果为R^2=0.699,P=0.005,表明变量间存在显著联系,得到一元线性回归人口估算模型为yi=y_0+a_0*x_i,采用该模型估算其余15个区县2010年人口总数为899293,2010年普查人口为843820,估算误差为6.57%。本研究建立的人口估算模型能比较快速准确的估算出大范围内的人口,对人口普查具有实用意义。With the development of remote sensing technology,it is possible to quickly and accurately estimate the population of a certain area. This paper extracted the buildings area by using visual interpretation technology,analyzed the relationship between population and the area of buildings,and explored the correlation of area with population. The results demonstrated that the coefficient of correlation was 0. 836（ P〈 0. 05）,and the regression analysis was applied to exploring the relationships between population and the area of buildings（ R^2= 0. 699,P 〈0. 01）,and then the estimation model of population was established in the study area（ yi= y_0＋ a_0＊x_i）. Based on the model developed here,the population of 15 counties was estimated to be 899,293 in 2010,while the census population was 843820 in that year; the estimation error is thus 6. 57%. The model in the study was used to estimate the population of large scale more accurately and more quickly,which could provide a practical reference for the census.

关 键 词：遥感 建筑物面积 相关性分析 回归分析 人口估算模型 

分 类 号：P9[天文地球—自然地理学] TP79[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]