伊朗新石油合同模式投资效果对比分析  

Contrastive analysis for investment performance of Iran Petroleum Contract

作　　者：周勇 冯文康 李振 洪龙超 毛及欣 

机构地区：[1]中国石油中东公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2016年第4期67-72,共6页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：伊朗政府推出的新石油合同与回购合同相比有了很多变化。对于伊朗原油开发项目,假定并选取投资参数,运用折现现金流量法,计算对比回购合同和新石油合同两种模式下的承包商投资效益,结果显示,承包商的内部收益率、净现值、投资回收期等指标,新石油合同略好于回购合同。回购合同模式下承包商的资金压力远高于新石油合同模式。低油价形势下,新石油合同的成本报酬回收风险相对较低。两种合同模式下,承包商均无法从高产量、高油价中分享到超额收益;在油田欠产、低油价时需承担投资效益受损的风险。产量、投资、实际油价、投标油价依次是影响新石油合同承包商效益的敏感因素;投资、产量、实际油价依次是影响回购合同承包商效益的敏感因素。新石油合同的承包商能从增产激励、高油价中分享部分超额收益,更愿意在项目执行过程中控制成本,节约投资。Compared to Buy-Back Contract, the Iran Petroleum Contract （IPC） introduced by Iranian govemment is greatly different. For Iran＇s oil development project, assuming and choosing investment parameters, adopting discounted cash flow method and calculating and comparing the investment results between Buy-Back Contract and Iran Petroleum Contract, the results show that contractor＇s IRR, NPV and investment payoff period of IPC are slightly better than those of Buy-Back Contract. Under Buy-Back Contract, the contractor＇s financial pressure is much higher than that of IPC. As to low oil price, the risk of IPC contractor＇s cost recovery and remuneration fee is relatively lower. In addition, under these two contracts, contractors cannot get excess return from the high production and high oil price; however, both of contractors have to bear the loss by the shortage of oil production and low oil prices. Under IPC, production, investment, oil sale price and bidding oil price are the sensitive factors that successively affect the contractor＇s realm, and the investment, production and real oil price are factors successively affecting contractor＇s retum under BuyBack Contract. The IPC contractor can share part of excess retums from the increase of production and high oil price, and is more willing to control the cost and save the investment during operation process of the project.

关 键 词：伊朗新石油合同 回购合同 折现现金流量法 投资效益 承包商 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]