一种沿海石油储运基地溢油风险智能评价系统  

An intelligent risk assessment system for the oil spill in the coastal oil storage base

作　　者：杨勇虎[1,2] 李颖[1] 刘丙新[1] 朱雪媛[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]大连东软信息学院计算机系,辽宁大连116023

出　　处：《海洋通报》2016年第2期235-240,共6页Marine Science Bulletin

基　　金：海洋公益性行业科研专项(2012418012-02);辽宁省教育厅一般项目(L2014577)

摘　　要：对于沿海石油储运基地,由于石油在储存、装卸及运输过程中存在潜在的风险,一旦发生突发事故,其后果就难以估量。因此,对其进行溢油风险评价就显得尤为重要。此文通过在中石油大连新港的实际调研,参照历史资料和相关规范和标准,对风险因素进行逐一分析,建立了风险评价指标体系;将本体与风险分析相结合,分析风险的可能原因、演变规律、规避措施和建议,建立了基于领域本体的风险分析模型;运用了多级模糊评价方法和领域本体模型对沿海石油储备基地进行风险评价和智能分析;最后开发了风险智能评价系统,实现了风险评价指标的管理、权重的计算、风险分析和评价等功能,最终得到评估结果,给出对策和建议。并以中石油大连新港为实例,对模型和系统进行验证,效果良好。There is a potential risk during the oil storage, handling and transport in coastal oil storage bases. If an accident occurs, the consequences are enormous. So the oil spill risk assessment is particularly important. The paper analyzes the risk factors, and then establishes the risk evaluation indicator system based on historical data, related specifications and standards, actual research in Dalian New Port. The risk analysis model based on the domain ontology is established by combining the ontology with the risk analysis, and analyzing the possible causes, evolution, preventive measures and recommendations of risks. The multi-level fuzzy evaluation model is applied in the risk evaluation for the oil spill in coastal oil storage bases. Finally, an intelligent evaluation system is developed for implementing some functions such as the management of the risk evaluation index, weight calculation, risk analysis and evaluation, and the evaluation results are gained with giving the countermeasures and suggestions. This paper takes Dalian New Port for example to validate the models and system with good results.

关 键 词：多级模糊评价 石油储运 风险评价 溢油 本体 

分 类 号：X55[环境科学与工程—环境工程]