基于可持续能力和协调状态的水资源系统评价方法探讨  

Study of method for evaluation of water resources system based on sustainability and coordinated condition

作　　者：郑德凤[1] 张雨[1] 魏秋蕊 孙才志[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《水资源保护》2016年第3期24-32,共9页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅人文社会科学研究基地项目(ZJ2014034);辽宁省社科联辽宁经济社会发展立项课题(2016lslktzixxjc-11);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(14YJAZH112)

摘　　要：基于可持续理论、系统协调理论内涵,从区域资源条件、生态环境、水资源开发利用水平及经济社会现状要素相互耦合、共同支撑水资源系统的角度,应用压力-状态-响应模型(PSR模型)构建了区域水资源系统综合评价指标体系,借鉴前人研究成果提出了水资源系统可持续度、协调度概念及其定量表征方法,在此基础上提出水资源系统综合评价方法,并结合有关数据对2003—2013年辽宁省水资源安全形势演进态势进行实证分析。结果表明:1研究时段内辽宁省水资源系统可持续度呈整体上升趋势,自然因素导致资源子系统可持续度变化不稳定,其余3个子系统可持续度基本呈现逐年提升态势;2研究时段内辽宁省水资源系统协调度波动变化,是资源条件、生态环境、开发利用水平和经济社会发展因素的耦合导致子系统之间的协调关系不稳定;3在研究时段内辽宁省水资源系统安全等级逐渐提高,安全态势趋于好转。未来,有关部门应在加大自然资源和生态环境保护力度、提高水资源开发利用水平和促进区域经济与社会发展的基础上,努力探索区域水资源系统协调发展和统一管理的新思路和新方法,将水资源纳入区域可持续发展进行综合管理和优化配置,以期实现区域水资源系统和谐、可持续的发展目标。Based on the implications of sustainable development and the system coordination theories,and from the perspectives of regional resources,the ecological environment,the level of water resources development and utilization,and economic-social development coupling of joint support for the water resources system,we used the pressure-state-response（ PSR） model to establish a comprehensive evaluation index system for regional water resources. With reference to previous studies, we put forward the concepts of the sustainable degree and coordinated degree of regional water resources systems and a method for quantitative characterization. On this basis,we propose a comprehensive evaluation method for water resources systems. We carried out an empirical analysis of the security of water resources in Liaoning Province during the period from 2003 to 2013 according to related data.The results are as follows：（ 1） During the study period,the sustainable degree of the water resources system in Liaoning Province exhibited a rising trend on the whole. The sustainable degree of the resources sub-system showed an unsteady change due to natural factors,and those of the other three sub-systems showed an increasing trend year by year.（ 2） The coordinated degree of the water resources system of Liaoning Province fluctuated during the study period. The regional resources,ecological environment,level of water resources development and utilization,and economic-social development coupling led to an unstable coordinated relation between the sub-systems.（ 3） The security level of the water resources system of Liaoning Province increased gradually during the study period,and the security state improved as well. In the future,relevant departments should strengthen the protection of natural resources and the eco-environment,improve the level of water resources exploitation and utilization,and promote regional economic and social development. Besides, exploring new thoughts and methods for coordinated development and unified ma

关 键 词：水资源系统 可持续能力 协调状态 综合评价 系统安全 辽宁省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]