基于贝叶斯网的岩体抗剪强度区间概率分析  

Interval Probability Analysis of Rock Mass Shear Strength Based on Bayesian Network

作　　者：肖欣[1] 章杨松[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学,南京市210094

出　　处：《勘察科学技术》2016年第2期5-10,26,共7页Site Investigation Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40872172);国防科技重点项目(科工二司[2012]491号)

摘　　要：运用区间理论确定基于地质强度指标GSI的岩体抗剪强度的方法是近年来岩土界研究的新成果,因其合理性与可操作性被广泛应用。该文在此基础上,根据岩块体积Vb、节理表面系数Jc和地质强度指标GSI的定量关系,建立了按区间理论和贝叶斯网联合确定GSI区间概率的方法。根据Hoek-Brown与Mohr-Coulomb准则间的等效关系,采用区间理论确定基于GSI的岩体抗剪强度参数区间,进一步采用贝叶斯网对岩体抗剪强度参数区间分布进行概率分析。研究表明,该方法不仅可以确定出区间的上下限,而且可以得到各小区间的概率分布,为岩体抗剪强度的不确定性分析提供了一条新途径。It is a new finding of the study in geotechnical to determine rock mass shear strength according to interval theory and based on geological shear strength index GSI in recent years. The approach is widely adopted for its rationality and operability. This paper establish an approach to determine the interval probability of GSI by using the interval theory and Bayesian network based on the quantitative relationship of the rock volume Vb,jointed surface coefficient Jcand geological strength index GSI. The interval of rock mass shear strength parameters based on GSI is determined by interval theory according to the equivalent relationship of Hoek-Brown criterion and Mohr-Coulomb criterion. Furthermore,Bayesian network is used to the probability analysis of the interval of rock mass shear strength parameters. The research shows using Bayesian network not only can determine the upper and lower range,but also can obtain the probability distribution in every containing interval,which provides a new way for the uncertainty analysis of rock mass shear strength.

关 键 词：岩体抗剪强度 区间理论 贝叶斯网 概率分析 

分 类 号：TU45[建筑科学—岩土工程]