考虑专家行为偏好与指标关联的铁路应急预案评估  

Evaluation of railway emergency plans considering experts' behavior preferences and indexes correlation

作　　者：常建鹏[1] 周国华[2,3] 陈振颂 李延来[1,4] 周芳汀[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031 [2]西南交通大学经济管理学院,四川成都610031 [3]西南交通大学中国铁路发展研究院,四川成都610031 [4]西南交通大学综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室,四川成都610031

出　　处：《计算机集成制造系统》2016年第5期1371-1385,共15页Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71371156;70971017);铁道部科技研究开发计划重点资助项目(2011G010-D);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(SWJTU12ZT12;268SWJTU15WTD08)~~

摘　　要：针对现有铁路应急预案评估方法中较少考虑专家行为偏好与指标关联的问题,提出一种基于前景理论与模糊测度理论的铁路应急预案评估方法。利用前景理论将各专家以直觉梯形模糊数给出的评估值转化为能体现专家行为偏好的前景价值;利用λ模糊测度和Choquet积分集结关联指标前景价值,并针对各指标模糊测度未知情况,提出最大熵优化模型确定最佳模糊测度;综合评估专家先验信息、专家所给评估值信息量大小以及专家个体决策在群决策中的贡献程度等多方信息,提出一种组合赋权法以确定专家权重;提出基于投影距离的逼近理想解法以对候选预案集进行优劣排序。案例结果表明所提方法具有合理性与有效性。Aiming at the problem that experts＇ behavior preferences and indexes correlation were seldom considered in the existing methods of railway emergency evaluation plans, an approach for railway emergency evaluation method based on prospect theory and fuzzy measures theory was put forward. The prospect value which reflected individual preference was obtained from the evaluation value which was represented by intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy number through prospect theory. The prospect value of correlative indexes was aggregated through k fuzzy measure and Choquet integral, and a maximum entropy optimization model was established to compute the optimal fuzzy measures owing to the unknown fuzzy measures of each index. By taking the wide range of information into consideration such as the prior information of each expert, the amount of information contained in evaluation value and the contributionof individual decision to group decision-making comprehensively, the experts＇ weight was obtained. A ranking of al- ternatives was obtained through improved TOPSIS based on projection distance. An example was provided to illus- trate the validity and rationality of the proposed method.

关 键 词：铁路应急预案 直觉梯形模糊数 前景理论 模糊测度 CHOQUET积分 改进逼近理想解法 

分 类 号：U298.6[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]