货币政策能够引导价格预期吗?——基于央行货币政策公示和实行的实证检验  

Does Monetary Policy Lead Price Expectation?An Empirical Test Based on the Center Bank's Monetary Policy Notice and Implement

作　　者：邝雄[1] 郑春梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]海南大学经济与管理学院,海南海口570228 [2]北方工业大学经济管理学院,北京100144

出　　处：《经济问题》2016年第6期31-38,共8页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家自然科学地区基金项目(71463012);海南省自然科学基金面上项目(20167250);海南大学中西部计划学科重点领域建设项目(ZXBJH-XK021);海南大学青年基金项目(qnjj1410)

摘　　要：央行的货币政策是否能够对价格预期进行引导,是关系货币政策能否通过引导预期提高政策有效性的关键问题。以货币政策引导价格预期的可控性为研究对象,选取央行调整存款准备金率和存贷款基准利率的政策公示和政策实行两种政策操作情况,利用φ相关系数和过度反应检验方法,分别检验了央行的政策公示和实行引导公众日度、月度和季度价格预期的可控性情况。实证结果表明:无论是调整存款准备金率还是存贷款利率政策,政策的公示和实行对公众日度和月度价格预期的引导效果均不显著;但公众对央行的政策公示存在过度反应现象,且反应程度大于政策实行;政策公示对季度价格预期的引导效果较明显,引导预期可能需要几个月的作用时滞。央行的货币政策对价格预期引导的可控性还有待提高。Whether the monetary policy can lead price expectation is of vital importance for improving the effectiveness of the monetary policy. The paper tries to study the controllability of the price expectation leading for the monetary policy. We select the policy notice and implement of the deposit reserve rate policy and the deposit and lending interest rate policy as data samples. Then,by the methods of the ？ Correlation Coefficient and the overreaction test,we empirically test the controllability of the price expectation leading for the central bank＇s monetary policy notice and implement. The result shows that： whether for the deposit reserve rate policy or the deposit and lending interest rate policy,the monetary policy has little impacts on the daily and monthly price expectation; however,the public do exist overreaction for the central bank＇s policy notice,and the reaction is stronger than that of the policy implement; it is almost several months time- lag action when the monetary policy influence the expectation significantly. The controllability of the price expectation leading should be improved by the center bank.

关 键 词：货币政策 预期引导 φ相关系数 过度反应 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]