2014年河南汛期久旱转雨过程分析及模式预报检验  

Diagnostic Analysis and Numerical Predication Model Verification of the Process from Drought to Rain During the rainy season in Henan of 2014

作　　者：崔丽曼 

机构地区：[1]河南省气象台,郑州450003

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2016年第1期25-29,共5页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

摘　　要：利用常规气象观测资料、土壤相对湿度监测资料以及数值模式预报产品对2014年汛期的久旱转雨过程进行了分析和检验。结果表明：环流调整是久旱转雨过程的必要条件;500h Pa高空槽东移配合中低层切变线和低空急流东伸加强及地面倒槽发展形成了此次天气过程;低空急流发展为此次暴雨提供充沛的水汽,暴雨落区与水汽通量和水汽通量散度以及垂直速度大值区位置相吻合,另外850~700h Pa大于64℃是此次暴雨预报的指标之一。对T639和ECMWF模式产品检验分析表明,两个模式都对稳定性降水预报有优势,ECMWF-THIN模式对降水预报有48小时提前量。Based on the meteorological observation data, soil humidity data and numerical model forecast products, the weather characteristics of the drought turning to rain process in 2014 were analyzed and verified. The results show that the adjustment of circulation is a necessary condition for this turning process; and the cooperation between moving eastward 500hPa upper trough and strengthening eastward low-level shear line and low-level jet as well as the development of inverted trough led to this weather process; furthermore, the development of low-level jet provided abundant moisture for the rainstorm, the rainstorm area corresponded to the large value area of vapor flux and its divergence and the vertical velocity. In addition, 〉64~C of 850-700hPa is one of the indicators of the storm forecast. Both T639 and ECMWF forecast have advantages about stable precipitation; and ECMWF-THIN model can predicted 48 hours in advance.

关 键 词：久旱转雨 影响系统 物理量诊断 数值模式检验 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]