消费支出、投资支出对外汇储备变动的影响研究——基于我国1978-2014年数据的实证分析  

Study on the Influence of Consumer Spending,Investment Spending on the Changes of Foreign Exchange Reserves

作　　者：胡智[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北政法大学经济学院,陕西西安710063

出　　处：《西安财经学院学报》2016年第4期46-51,共6页Journal of Xi’an University of Finance & Economics

摘　　要：长期以来,我国巨额外汇储备规模持续备受关注,影响外汇储备变动的因素日益复杂。通过构建实证研究模型,利用我国1978—2014年的年度数据,实证研究了消费支出与投资支出对外汇储备变动的影响。结果表明:(1)消费支出增加有助于抑制外汇储备增加,投资支出增加则有助于促进外汇储备增加,二者对外汇储备变动的影响在一定程度上意味着均衡;(2)消费支出增加对外汇储备增加的抑制作用较小,投资支出增加对外汇储备增加的促进作用相对较大。研究结果解释了新常态下我国外汇储备下降的消费投资变化因素,对我国供给侧改革政策和需求侧改革政策调整及其对外汇储备的影响有一定意义。China＇s substantial foreign exchange reserves has kept drawing attention for a long time, and factors influencing has become increasingly complex. By constructing empirical research model and analyzing annual data of China from 1978 to 2014, the research practically studied how consumer spending and in- vestment spending affect foreign exchange reserves. The results showed： （1） the increasing consumer spending is beneficial for restraining the augment of foreign exchange reserves, while the growing investment spending helps to promote foreign exchange reserves. The influences of them on foreign exchange reserves changes are balance to a certain extent. （2） The restraining effect of consumer spending increasing on foreign exchange reserves is weaker when the encouraging influence of investment spending increasing is relatively stronger. The research results explained the changing factors of consumption and investment on foreign exchange reserves decreasing under the new normal of China. There has certain significance of how the adjustment of China＇s side reformation policies of supply and demand impacts on the foreign exchange reserves changes. And the research illustrated the changing relationship between consumption, investment and foreign exchange reserves.

关 键 词：金融研究 消费支出 投资支出 外汇储备 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]