劳动人口占比对投资率和经济增长的影响——基于索洛模型和中国数据的研究  

The Influence of Labor Force Ratio on the Investment Rate and Economic Growth:Based on the Research of Solow Model and Data of China

作　　者：刘长庚[1] 张晓鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院,湖南湘潭411105

出　　处：《湘潭大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2016年第3期60-65,共6页Journal of Xiangtan University:Philosophy And Social Sciences

摘　　要：基于拓展的索洛经济增长模型,从劳动力供给视角对中国过去数十年的投资驱动型发展战略进行考量,采用中国1997—2014年的省级面板数据对理论模型进行检验。结果显示:劳动人口占比对投资率的影响具有明显的门槛效应,充足的劳动力供给有助于促进资本积累,而劳动人口占比的下降对投资率的增长效应不断弱化。"人口红利"拐点的到来预示着中国的投资率将发生下降,进而对经济增长产生负面影响。新常态下中国经济增长必须从依靠"人口数量红利"转为依靠"人口素质红利",更好地提高劳动参与率和劳动力资源配置效率。Based on an extended Solow economic growth model,we researched China＇s investment- driven development strategy in the past decades on the perspective of the model of labor supply. With the analysis of the provincial panel data from 1997 to 2014,we find that： the labor force ratio has a panel threshold effect on investment rate. Sufficient labor supply will benefit the capital accumulation. Vice verse,the effect on investment rate of growth will be weakened. The arrival of inflection point at the ＂demographic dividend＂indicates that China＇s investment rate will decline,which will have a negative impact on economic growth. Under the circumstances of ＂new normal＂of Chinese economy,to sustain our economic growth,we must transform from depending on ＂demographic dividend＂to ＂the quality of the population dividend＂,improve labor participation rate and labor resource allocation efficiency.

关 键 词：劳动人口占比 投资率 索洛增长理论 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]