基于CMIP5 RCP情景的清江流域径流对气候变化的响应研究  

Runoff response to RCP scenarios of CMIP5 climate change projections in Qingjiang River basin

作　　者：王琤浩[1,2] 刘冀[1,2] 董晓华[1,2] 喻丹[3] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心,武汉430072 [3]武汉大学水利水电学院,武汉430072

出　　处：《华中师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第3期449-456,共8页Journal of Central China Normal University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41101511);湖北省教育厅自然科学研究项目(Q20141204)

摘　　要：气候变化的径流响应在近些年逐渐成为研究热点.在建立清江渔峡口以上流域SWAT模型的基础上采用CMIP5模式组3种模式下各RCP情景2016年~2100年的月降水数据集,经降尺度后对研究流域的月径流进行预测,并与历史时期（1990年~1999年）径流情况进行对比以评估径流变化.结果表明：以恩施站为代表的未来年内最大月降水出现时间提前1~2个月,流域年内最大月径流出现时间也提前1~2个月,降水和径流均在2016年~2100年间呈整体增强趋势.短期（2016年~2035年）内,大部分模式预测的降水和径流将低于历史时期（1990年~1999年）,但中期（2046年~2065年）大部分模式预测的年降水量和径流量呈增加趋势,在2081年后该趋势更为明显.CMIP5模式组中不同预测模式的不确定性大于不同典型浓度路径,且降水的输入为径流预测误差的主要来源.The runoff response to climate change has become a hot research area.The Soil and Water Assessment Tool（SWAT）for the upper watershed of Qingjiang River was established and calibrated.Then the future monthly runoff of the above region was simulated based on downscaled monthly precipitation outputs from 2016 to 2100of three climate models in different RCP scenarios from the phase 5of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project（CMIP5）.The runoff response to climate change was assessed by comparison with the historical data from1990 to 1999.The results turn out that both future monthly precipitation（Enshi Station was chosen as a sample）and runoff peak will be 1-2months earlier.There will be an overall increasing tendency of both precipitation and runoff in the period of 2016-2100.In near term（2016-2035）the precipitation and runoff predicated by most of the models will be less than that in reference period（1990-1999）.However,there will be a rising trend in mid term（2046-2065）,and the tendency will be more obvious after 2081.In addition,the uncertainties of different CMIP5 models are larger than different RCPs of the same model,and the precipitation data input is the main source of uncertainty in runoff prediction.

关 键 词：径流响应 气候变化 CMIP5模式组 SWAT模型 不确定性 清江流域 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学] TV213.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]