1951年～2014年武汉市极端降水事件变化特征  

Variation characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the Wuhan City from 1951 to 2014

作　　者：吴雷[1] 许有鹏[1] 杨倩[2] 高斌[1] 王强[1] 叶正伟[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京210046 [2]合肥学院,合肥230601 [3]淮阳师范学院,江苏淮安223300

出　　处：《华中师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第3期457-463,共7页Journal of Central China Normal University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41371046;41471425)

摘　　要：基于1951年~2014年武汉市逐日降水资料,应用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall检验和复值Morlet小波分析,研究了武汉市极端降水事件的变化特征.结果表明：极端降水事件的线性变化趋势不显著,1日最大降水量（Rx1day）的线性倾向率为-1.97 mm/10a,5日最大降水量（Rx5day）、强降水量（R95p）和大雨日数（R25）的线性倾向率分别为4.96 mm/10a、10.92 mm/10a和0.28d/10a.极端降水指数的年际波动剧烈,年代际差异显著,大致可将其划分为偏高期（1951年~1964年）、偏低期（1965年~1978年）和偏高期（1979年~2014年）.Rx1day的波动幅度在整个时间序列逐渐收敛,而Rx5day、R95p和R25在偏高期波动幅度较大.Rx1day大体上经历了减少—增加—减少—稳定的变化趋势,而Rx5day、R95p和R25经历了减少—增加—减少—增加的变化趋势,R95p在1978年变化趋势显著.Rx1day、Rx5day和R95p均存在11a左右的周期变化,此周期具有全域性及较好的连续性,R25的第一主周期为17a,其信号稳定且贯穿整个时间序列.Based on the daily precipitation data of Wuhan station from 1951 to 2014,linear trend method,Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis were employed to analyze the variation characteristics of extreme precipitation events.Results showed that the linear trend of extreme precipitation events was not significant with a maximal 1-day total rainfall（Rx1day）of-1.97mm/10 a.Maximal 5-day total rainfall（Rx5day）,95 th percentile of precipitation（R95p）and days of daily precipitation more than 25mm（R25）displayed an increasing trend at the rate of 4.96 mm/10 a,10.92 mm/10aand0.28d/10 a,respectively.The inter-annual fluctuation of extreme precipitation indices were remarkable,and the inter-decadal variability were significantly different.The fluctuation range of Rx1 day gradually converged throughout the entire time series,while that of Rx5 day,R95p and R25 were relatively great during the high value period.The variation trend of Rx1 day generally presented to be reduce-increase-reduce-stable,while that of Rx5 day,R95p and R25 appeared reduce-increase-reduce-increase.R95 p varied significantly in 1978.Rx1 day,Rx5day and R95 p had a periodic variation of about 11 years which is universal has good continuity.The first principal cycle of R25 is 17years,and its signal is stable throughout the entire time series.

关 键 词：极端降水事件 年际变化 趋势性 周期性 武汉市 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]