东亚冬季风气候变率对SSTA响应特征的研究  

Response of Climatic Variability for East Asian Winter Monsoon to SSTA

作　　者：龙晓琴[1,2] 余锦华[1] 赵晓彤[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/大气科学学院,南京210044 [2]湖南省气象服务中心,长沙410118

出　　处：《气象科学》2016年第2期176-183,共8页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973)(2012CB955903);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(200906016);江苏省高校自然科学重大项目(13KJA170002)资助

摘　　要：基于1951/1952—2012/2013年冬季Hadley气候中心的月平均海表层温度(SST)和中国160个台站冬季逐月平均气温等资料,利用最新发展的广义平衡反馈方法(GEFA),结合EOF,相关分析等,诊断东亚冬季风对多个海盆海表温度异常(SSTA)的响应特征,探讨其成因。结果表明:热带印度洋海盆一致模(TI1,95%置信水平)和热带太平洋SSTA第三模(TP3,90%置信水平)对东亚冬季风的强迫最为显著,方差贡献率分别为18.44%和9.19%。当热带印度洋海盆一致变冷或TP3出现正位相时,东亚冬季风增强。热带印度洋一致变冷使局地大气冷却,对流层高层出现辐合中心。西伯利亚地区对流层高层辐合,低层辐散,且高层辐合强于低层辐散,使该区域的海平面气压(SLP)升高显著。阿留申地区对流层高、低层都出现辐散,SLP降低。赤道西太平洋的对流层高层出现辐散,低层为辐合,SLP变化弱。3个关键区SLP的变化导致了东亚冬季风增强。Based on monthly mean sea surface temperature （SST） of Hadley climate center and the Chinese 160 stations monthly mean temperature data, etc. during 1951/1952--2012/2013 DJF, the rea- sons of EAWM response to multiple basins of sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） are analyzed by the recently developed method of general equilibrium feedback （ GEFA）, combined with EOF analysis, correlation analysis and so on. The results show that the first mode SSTA of tropical Indian Ocean （ TI1, 95% confidence level） and the third mode SSTA of tropical Pacific Ocean （TP3, 90% confidence level） affect the EWAM significantly, relative variance contributions are 18.14% and 9. 19% respectively. When TI1 is consistently cold or TP3 is in positive phase, the EAWM gets stronger. Cooled SSTA of TI1 causes local atmospheric to cool, there is convergence center in the upper troposphere. High level conver- gence, low level divergence in Siberia, and high level convergence are stronger than low level diver- gence, and are combined to make its sea level pressure （SLP） rising obviously; the divergence in the Aleutian at both high and low levels reduces the SLP. The high level divergence and low level; conver-gence in the equatorial western Pacific Ocean make SLP lower. The change of SLP in the three key re- gions causes the EAWM index to be stronger.

关 键 词：东亚冬季风 气候变率 海表温度异常 广义平衡反馈方法 

分 类 号：P425.42[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]