改进GM-Markov模型的游客量预测方法及其应用  

Tourist amount forecasting method based on improving GM-Markov modeling and its application

作　　者：张文宇[1] 栾婧[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安邮电大学经济管理学院,西安710061

出　　处：《计算机工程与应用》2016年第13期110-114,151,共6页Computer Engineering and Applications

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基金(No.2012GQ8050)

摘　　要：游客量的准确预测对旅游产业的开发具有重要的指导意义。提出一种基于Logistic增长曲线和GM-Markov相结合的组合模型的游客量预测方法,该模型能够同时考虑旅游学理论基础和纯数理统计方法,并进行实证仿真。仿真结果表明该组合预测的方法比单一预测方法精度更高,在旅游产业实践中更具可行性和有效性。Accurate prediction of tourist amount is significant for the development of the tourism industry. A combinedmodel based on the Logistic growth and GM-Markov model for predicting tourist amount is proposed. Tourism theory andpure mathematical statistical method are combined in this model. Empirical researches are simulated（using the combinedmodel）, the results of the research indicate that the combined model is more accurate than separated one, and it’s morefeasible and effective in the practice of tourism.

关 键 词：游客量 罗杰斯增长曲线 灰色马尔可夫模型 组合预测 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]