Risk analysis for a cascade reservoir system using the brittle risk entropy method  

作　　者：YANG Yin REN Qing Wen TIAN Ying XIONG Yao 

机构地区：[1]College of Hydraulic Conservation and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University [2]Department of Engineering Mechanics, Hohai University

出　　处：《Science China(Technological Sciences)》2016年第6期882-887,共6页中国科学（技术科学英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Science and Technology Plan(Grant No.2013BAB06B01);the Graduate Student Scientific Research Innovation Projects of Regular Institutions of Jiangsu Province(Grant Nos.CXZZ11_0439&CXZZ13_0236)

摘　　要：The principal means of conserving water and utilizing hydropower in China is to exploit the use of a series of reservoirs in a cascade. This method and its inherent engineering safety problems are receiving increasing attention nowadays. In the field of engineering safety analysis, much work has focused on single reservoir projects in the past few years, but there is little research available on the safety risk analysis of cascade reservoirs, either within China or internationally. Therefore, a framework for risk analysis on the cascade reservoir system based on the theory of system engineering is constructed in this article. A cascading failure model is established and the connection degree factor discussed. In addition, the importance degree of the subsystem, which can be calculated by combining the analytical hierarchy process and the entropy weight method, is explained. According to brittleness theory of a complex system, brittle risk entropy is proposed as a performance index for measuring the collapse uncertainty of the cascade reservoir system. In addition, the brittle risk of the cascade reservoir system is predicted, which provides a reference for safety analysis in water conservation and hydropower construction projects in China.

关 键 词：cascading failure model safety analysis risk assessment complex system brittle risk entropy 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]