乌鲁木齐市PM2.5质量浓度增速的动态分析  

Dynamic analysis of PM2.5 concentration growth in Urumqi

作　　者：谢心庆 郑薇[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学应用数学学院,乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《哈尔滨商业大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第2期251-256,共6页Journal of Harbin University of Commerce：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：自治区研究生科研项目基金:乌鲁木齐市PM2.5浓度的动态分析(XGJRI2015120)

摘　　要：采用基于长期约束下的结构向量自回归(SVAR)方法,以SO_2排放来刻画乌鲁木齐PM2.5质量浓度增长.GDP冲击、城市化人口水平冲击表现为近似反向的现象,使得SO_2冲击总是比GDP、城市化人口冲击滞后一期,大约在第10期对SO_2排放增速的影响为0.在讨论PM2.5质量浓度增速的影响因素中,归因于经济增长的比重约为11.2%.通过回归模型得到,经济增速对PM2.5质量浓度增速的边际效应为2.280,人口增长对PM2.5质量浓度增速的边际效应为12.293.最后,通过稳定性检验得到模型相关参数的稳定性.In this paper,the SO_2 emissions was used to depict the urumqi PM2. 5 concentrations growth based on the structure vector autoregressive（ SVAR） method under the long-term restriction. GDP and urbanization level impact showed approximate reverse phenomenon making SO_2 impact always lag one phase after GDP and urbanization level impact. On the10 th phase,the influence of SO_2 emissions growth was 0. In discussing the factors affecting the growth of PM2. 5 concentration,the share of the economic growth was about 11. 2%.The growth rate of economic growth on PM2. 5 concentrations marginal effect was 2. 280. The marginal effect of population growth on growth rate of PM2. 5 concentrations was 12. 293. Finally,the stability of the model parameters was obtained by stability test.

关 键 词：PM2.5 SO2排放 SVAR 稳定性试验 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]