我国人口老龄化加速发展对城市化发展速度的影响  

Impact of accelerating process of population aging on urbanization development in China

作　　者：游士兵[1] 任静儒[1] 赵雨[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年第6期169-176,共8页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：湖北省教育厅哲学社会科学研究重大项目"湖北‘黄金十年’经济安全评价及防控策略研究"(批准号:14ZD001)

摘　　要：中国的城市化水平在过去的20余年里以年均超过一个百分点的速度提升,然而在城市化主要依靠人口乡城迁移推动的模式下,人口年龄结构老化对城市化发展的影响日渐显现。文章通过年龄移算法描述了乡城人口迁移流动的年龄模式,发现我国农村人口乡城迁移概率随年龄的分布呈现"中间大,两头小"的特征。然后,文章分析了此种年龄模式形成的原因,认为制度是影响乡城迁移年龄模式的决定性因素,制度变迁的缓慢性以及路径依赖决定了短期内我国人口乡城迁移年龄模式的稳定性。基于此,文章预测了人口老龄化对未来中国人口城市化发展的影响,得出的基本结论是,未来中国城市化发展的水平提高将进入一个相对平缓的时期,年度城市化水平的提升将显著低于过去一个时期,对未来10-20年中国城市化发展水平的预期未可过于乐观。针对这一结论,文章建议在未来的城市化过程中应完善社会融入机制和提升城市化质量。The urbanization level in China is improved by more than 1% every year in the past two decades. However, it mainly relies on the rural-urban migration of population, and population aging has increasingly greater impact on urbanization development. In this paper, the age pattern of rural-urban population migration is described through the age-moving method, and it is found out that the migration of rural population presents the characteristic of ＇ more adults and fewer young and old people＇. And then, reasons for the formation of age pattern are analyzed. It is considered that institutional arrangements are the decisive factors impacting the rural-urban migration age pattern, and the slow institutional change and path dependence determine the stability of the age pattern of the urban- rural migration. On that basis, the impact of aging population on the population urbanization development in the future is estimated. It is concluded that in the future, China＇ s urbanization development level will be improved into a relatively gently stage, and the annual urbanization improvement will be remarkably lower than the past stage. It cannot be too optimistic about the prediction of urbanization development level in the future 10 or 20 years in China. In conclusion, the paper suggests that the government should improve the society melting system and promote the quality of urbanization in the future.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 城市化 人口乡城迁移 

分 类 号：C92-03[社会学—人口学]