基于Solow模型的经济增速变化解释及生产要素贡献率测算  

Explanation of Economic Growth Change and Contribution Rate Measuring of Production Factors Based on Solow Model

作　　者：马海涛[1] 郝晓婧 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学

出　　处：《湖南财政经济学院学报》2016年第3期82-91,共10页Journal of Hunan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"中国特色公共支出理论与政策创新"(项目编号:11AZD045)

摘　　要：运用Solow模型探究2011年以来经济增速发生变化的原因并测算各生产要素贡献率,但Solow模型主要对稳态下的经济运行做出了解释,中国经济未达稳态,因此先推导非稳态经济下经济增速的测算公式,得出2011年后经济增速"换挡"原因在于高投资率、高人均资本增长率及低初始人均资本;再根据Solow余额模型方程测算2011年前后两种经济态势下各生产要素对经济的贡献率,发现资本贡献率下降而技术贡献率上升;最后提出"十三五"期间的政策导向应当是改变生产要素最佳投入,以技术代替资本,引导经济产生要素替换效应,并就推动技术进步的重要因素——教育做出重点说明。This paper uses Solow model to explore the reasons for the change of economic growth since 2011 , at the same time, it measures the contribution rate of each factor of production. But the Solow model mainly explains the economic operation in the steady state, and Chinag economy has not reached a steady state. Therefore, first to derive the ealculation formu- la of economic growth in the non steady state ceonomy, conelused that after 2011, the economic growth shift because of high investment rate, high per capita eapital growth rate and low initial per capita capital; Secondly, aceording to the Solow balance model equation, the contribution rate of eaeh factor of production to the economy has been ealculated in the two economic situation before and after 2011, and we can find that the contribution rate of the capital contribution rate decreased and the technical contribution rate increased; Finally during the thirteenth Five Year Plan , policy should be to change the production elements of the optimal investment, replaced by technology capital, guide the economy effect of faetor substitution. At the end of the paper, the important factor of promoting the teehnieal progress - - edu- cation is made as the key point.

关 键 词：SOLOW模型 Solow余额 生产要素贡献率 资本 劳动力 技术 教育 

分 类 号：F061[经济管理—政治经济学] F124.8