2020年、2025年、2030年我国镍资源供需量熵值组合预测  

Entropy combination forecast of China's nickel supply and demand in year 2020,2025,2030

作　　者：芦琳娜[1,2,3] 胡平樱[4] 雷涯邻[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国国土资源经济研究院,北京101149 [2]国土资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室,北京100083 [3]中国地质大学(北京)人文经管学院,北京100083 [4]中国石油大学(北京)地球科学学院,北京102249

出　　处：《中国矿业》2016年第6期38-43,共6页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：国土资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室开放课题资助(编号:CCA2013.15)

摘　　要：镍资源是我国经济发展的重要资源保障和基础支撑要素,近年来,中国镍消费量逐年上升。本文通过分析国内镍资源的供应、需求,引入经济增长、不锈钢产量等相关因素,运用逻辑斯蒂模型、人工神经网络等多种方法对2020年、2025年、2030年我国镍资源供需量进行熵值组合预测可知,镍资源在2020年、2025年处于供需基本平衡状态,在2030年则出现短缺,即在国内资源有限、需求较旺的前提条件下,供应呈现出趋减状态,保障能力有限,影响未来国家镍资源安全。在此基础上,提出镍资源产业适度发展的地勘投入、产业杠杆、金融贸易等建议。Nickel resources are important resources and fundamental element of China＇s economic development.Discussion on the supply and demand of nickel resources is particularly essential for its availability and security.As an emerging economy,China has achieved rapid economic development growth and China＇s nickel consumption has increased dramatically during industrialization and urbanization in recent years.This paper forecasts China＇s nickel supply and demand in year 2020,2025 and 2030by analyzing the domestic supply and demand of nickel resources,applying entropy combination methods of artificial neural networks,logistic model,etc.and adopting the relevant factors such as economic growth and stainless steel production.The prediction reveals that nickel resources will reach the state of supply and demand balance in year 2020 and 2025 while experiencing the shortfall in year 2030.Under the premise of scarce domestic resources and booming demand,the supply will show reducing trend and weak availability,which will threaten national security of nickel resources.On this basis,policy recommendations on geological exploration investment,industry leverage as well as financial and trade tools are proposed for moderate development of nickel resource industry.

关 键 词：镍矿供需 熵值组合预测 市场分析 

分 类 号：F405[经济管理—产业经济]