俄罗斯进口替代的性质、内容与政策逻辑  

Russian Import Substitution: Nature,Content and the Logic of Policy

作　　者：徐坡岭[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学转型国家经济政治研究中心

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2016年第3期1-21,共21页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

摘　　要：进口替代作为重要的工业化发展战略,有其内在的逻辑基础和重要的实践价值。俄罗斯的进口替代从自发进程到政策实践,是经济危机和内外压力共同作用的结果。从性质和内容看,俄罗斯当前的进口替代是国家安全战略和结构发展战略的综合,其根本目的是在反危机过程中逐步解决经济发展中的深层次结构性矛盾。在WTO框架和经济全球化条件下,贸易保护和复汇率制等传统进口替代政策工具已经失效,但一定时期的卢布汇率贬值和制造业劳动生产率的逐渐提升依然能够满足进口替代的必要条件。本文认为,俄罗斯进口替代战略的政策逻辑具有合理性。Import substitution as important development strategy of industrialization,has its inherent logic basis and important practical value. Russia's policy of import substitution,from the spontaneous process to practice,is the result of the combination of the economic crisis and the internal and external pressure. Looking from the nature and content, the fundamental purpose of the current Russian import substitution is gradually solving the deep- seated structural contradictions in economic development during the anti- crisis process. It is complex of national security strategy and structural comprehensive development strategy. Against backdrop of economic globalization,traditional import substitution policy tools,such as trade protection and multiple rate of exchange system,have failed,but the rouble devaluation for some time and the rising of manufacturing labor productivity can completely meet the necessary conditions of import substitution.

关 键 词：俄罗斯 进口替代 反危机计划 

分 类 号：F755.12[经济管理—国际贸易]