度量中国的金融周期  

Measuring China's Financial Cycle

作　　者：伊楠[1] 张斌[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院研究生院 [2]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2016年第6期13-23,共11页Studies of International Finance

摘　　要：金融周期指"对资产价值和风险的认知,对待风险的态度和融资约束之间自我加强的交互作用",这种交互作用会放大经济波动,可能导致严重的金融困境和经济失调。本文讨论了适合构建中国金融周期的指标选取,选取私人部门信贷、私人部门信贷/GDP和国房景气指数作为融资约束及对风险和价值认知的替代变量,构建中国的金融周期指标。研究发现,中国金融周期的长度显著大于经济周期,具有慢升快降的特征,金融周期波峰与经济增速下滑紧密相关,目前中国处于金融周期收缩阶段和经济周期下行阶段叠加时期。Financial cycle denotes the self-reinforcing interactions between and among the perceptions of value and risk, attitudes towards risk and financing constraints, which can amplify economic fluctuations and possibly lead to serious financial distress and economic dislocations. The paper selects private sector credit, eredit/GDP and real estate climate indices as the proxy variables of financial cycle, and builds China＇s financial cycle indicator. It is found that financial cycle is much longer than business cycle, and features a slow rise and fast drop, with its peaks closely related to slowdown in eco- nomic growth. Currently, China is in both the contraction phase of the financial cycle and the downward phase of the economic cycle.

关 键 词：系统性风险 金融周期 经济周期 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]