安徽省居民生活用电增长的动因分解与潜力研究  

Decomposition and Potential of Residential Electricity Consumption Growth in Anhui Province

作　　者：荣秀婷[1] 叶彬[1] 葛斐[1] 陈煜[2] 李方一[3] 

机构地区：[1]国网安徽省电力公司经济技术研究院,安徽合肥230022 [2]国网安徽省电力公司,安徽合肥230022 [3]合肥工业大学,安徽合肥2300229

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2016年第7期793-797,880,共6页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国网安徽省电力公司科技项目"基于大数据挖掘的安徽省重点行业经济电力监测分析及应用"(编号:52120914000A);安徽省自然科学基金项目(编号:1508085QG146)

摘　　要：近年来,我国中东部地区居民生活用电量不断增长,用电增速远超全社会用电量增速,明确其增长动因及未来增长潜力对能源保障和节能减排工作具有重要的参考价值。以安徽省为例,基于平均迪氏指数法构建因素分解模型,对安徽省1995—2015年居民生活用电增量进行动因分解。研究结果表明:人口流动、人口增长、城镇化、住房条件改善和用电强度变化分别贡献了安徽省居民生活用电增长的-5%、6%,8%、53%和37%,居住条件改善和用电强度提升是其快速增长的主要原因。通过构建"十三五"经济社会发展情景,预计2020年居民用电量年均增长6.9%—7.9%,其中城镇居民用电增长占增量的80%左右,居住条件改善和用电强度提升仍然是主要的推动因素。Residential electricity consumption of people in central and east China increased a lot in recent years,as soon as the proportion of that in total electricity consumption. It was significant for energy department＇s work to make clear the driving forces and future trend of residential electricity consumption. Taking a case study of Anhui Province as an example,constructed an index decomposition model,based on the growth of residential electricity consumption from 1995 to 2015,decomposed into population flow,population growth,housing area,urbanization and consumption intensity. According to the results of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index（ LMDI） analysis,driving forces contributed-5%,6%,8%,53% and 37% of growth respectively in last 20 years,among which housing area and consumption intensity increase were the key drivers. After that different scenarios of development in 2020 were built to study growth potential of residential electricity consumption. The results showed that the annual growth rate of electricity consumption would be 6. 9% —7. 9% in 2020,among which growth in urban areas occupied about 80% of the total growth. Housing improvement and consumption intensity increase played a substantial role in residential electricity consumption growth in the future.

关 键 词：居民生活用电 平均迪氏指数法 情景分析 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济] F061.1