1961—2010年西双版纳傣族自治州极端气温时空变化特征  

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Extreme Temperatures over Xishuangbanna Dai Autonomous Prefecture from 1961 to 2010

作　　者：代云川 李丽[2] 吴巩胜[2] 周跃[2] 李雯雯[2] 

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,云南昆明650500 [2]云南财经大学野生动植物管理与生态系统健康研究中心,云南昆明650221

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2016年第7期813-817,共5页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:31100351)

摘　　要：利用1961—2010年西双版纳傣族自治州的逐日气象格点数据(0.25°×0.25°),运用R软件摘出研究区范围内的每个格点数据,利用STARDEX中的FORTRAN子程序计算出57个极端气候指数,选取其中与气温相关的9个主要极端指数,结合线性趋势分析与Mann-Kendall秩次检验等方法分析了1961—2010年西双版纳极端气温变化的特征。结果表明:(1)西双版纳近50年来气温呈显著上升趋势,平均气温、平均最高气温和平均最低气温分别以0.27℃/10a、0.22℃/10a和0.36℃/10a的速率上升,其值的空间分布呈现出自西北向东南递减趋势;(2)气温日较差平均值和较大气温日较差阈值呈下降趋势,分别以0.13℃/10a和0.25℃/10a的速率下降,其值的空间分布呈现出自西向东递减趋势;(3)冷暖日、冷暖夜阈值均呈上升趋势,分别以0.27℃/10a、0.16℃/10a、0.46℃/10a和0.27℃/10a的速率上升趋势,其值的空间分布呈现出北部、西北部向南部、东南部递减趋势。西双版纳气温变化呈明显增温趋势,研究区冷事件在减少,暖事件在增多。The daily meteorological grid data（ 0. 25° × 0. 25°） of Xishuangbanna from 1961 to 2010 was adopted in this study. Each grid data in the study area was computed out by running the program of R. Meanwhile,the 57 extreme climate indices were computed out by means of the subprogram of FORTRAN in the STARDEX Software,and the 9 extreme climate indices relevant to temperature were selected. The variation characteristics of extreme temperature of Xishuangbanna from 1961 to 2010 were analyzed by using the 9 indices,linear trend method and Mann-Kendall rank test. The results indicated that：（1）The temperature increased significantly in Xishuangbanna in the last 50 years. The extreme climate indices of tav,txav and tnav respectively increased at rate of 0. 27℃ /10 a,0. 22℃ /10 a and 0. 36℃ /10 a. The value of the three indices gradually decreased from northwest to southeast on the spatial distribution.（2）The extreme climate indices of trav and trq90 respectively decreased at rate of 0. 13℃ /10 and 0. 25℃ /10 a. The value of the two indices gradually decreased from west to east on the spatial distribution.（3）The extreme climate indices of txq10,txq90,tnq10 and tnq90 respectively increased at rate of 0. 27℃ /10 a,0. 16℃ /10 a,0. 46℃ /10 a and 0.27℃ /10 a. The value of the four indices gradually decreased from north,northwest to south,southwest on the spatial distribution. The temperature variation obviously increased in Xishuangbanna since 1961,and the cold events decreased,warm events increased in the study area.

关 键 词：西双版纳 极端气温 MANN-KENDALL检验 时空变化 

分 类 号：P423.36[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]