东江流域枯水径流变异根本原因分析  

Root cause analysis of low flow alteration in the East River

作　　者：顾海挺[1,2,3] 谢平[1,2,3] 雷旭[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072 [2]国家领土主权与海洋权益协同创新中心,武汉430072 [3]水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心,武汉430072

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2016年第6期20-29,共10页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(91547205;51579181;51179131;51190094);广东省水利科技创新项目成果(2011-01)

摘　　要：随着社会经济的发展,人口的增加,水资源的供求矛盾日益突出,枯水问题越来越受到广泛的关注。本文以东江流域为例,采用根本原因分析法(RCA法)归纳和探究了枯水径流变异的原因,并以因果树的方式直观地展现了其因果关系。首先对东江流域干流站点和支流站点枯水期径流序列变异分析后,发现干流4个站点径流发生了变异,且有明显联系;其次结合流域枯水期径流、降雨、蒸发、水库蓄水量数据分析,构建出东江流域枯水期径流变异因果树;最后综合分析得出结论:气候对东江流域枯水径流序列变异影响不大;影响主要来自于人类活动,导致序列变异的主要原因是新丰江水库和枫树坝水库的径流调节。With development of society and population growth, conflict between water supply and demand becomes increasingly sharp and low water issue attracts growing attention from the public. In this paper, a root cause analysis（RCA） is used as a tool to examine the major factors of low flow alteration systematically, and these factors and their relationship are clearly shown using a causality tree diagram. In a case study of the Dong River basin, low flow series at its hydrological stations were analyzed. Results show change points that occurred in the low flow series at four stations on the river mainstream and and the variations had obvious mutual correlation. A causality tree diagram of the variations was constructed using the data of flow, rainfall, evaporation, and features of the reservoirs in this basin. This study comes to the following conclusions： Influence of climate change on runoff variations was insignificant in the East River case; the major influences in this basin were originated from frequent human activities; the variations in low flow series were caused by the runoff regulation at the Fengshuba reservoir and Xinfengjiang reservoir.

关 键 词：枯水资源 根本原因分析法 东江流域 变异归因 非一致性 

分 类 号：P333.3[天文地球—水文科学]