2016年以来玉米市场分析与展望  

Maize Market since 2016 and Its Outlook

作　　者：习银生[1] 杨丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]农业部农村经济研究中心,北京100810

出　　处：《农业展望》2016年第5期10-15,共6页Agricultural Outlook

摘　　要：由于国内玉米阶段性供大于求格局进一步加剧,国家大幅下调玉米临储收购价格,并明确将取消临储收购政策,实行市场定价和价补分离改革,2016年以来,国内玉米价格持续下跌,价格同比大幅下降;全球玉米供求形势保持宽松,国际玉米价格低位运行;国内外玉米价差逐步缩小,中国玉米进口量同比大幅减少。展望后市,2016年国内玉米种植面积13年来将首次缩减,产量下降;消费需求有所恢复,但供大于求格局难以改变,后市价格总体继续看跌;国内外玉米价差有望进一步缩小,玉米及其替代品全年进口量有望明显减少。Since 2016,because of further aggravation of the oversupply,with the slump of the temporary storage price and the unambiguous cancellation of temporary storage policy to implement the reform of market pricing and separation of price and compensation,China＇s market price of maize continued falling,and was much lower than the same period of the previous year.The global maize maintained oversupply,and the international market price continued downturn.The price gap between domestic and foreign maize shrank,and China＇s maize imports decreased year-on-year.Looking forward to the future,the planting area of China＇s maize will reduce for the first time in recent 13 years,and maize production will also decrease.Maize consumption will recover to grow,but which will not change the oversupply situation,domestic maize price will continue falling.The price gap between domestic and foreign maize will shrink further,so the import of maize and its consumer alternatives will significantly reduce.

关 键 词：玉米 市场价格 生产 国内外 进出口 影响因素 展望 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]