“克强指数”的应用效果检验及改进  

An Empirical Test of the Effectiveness of “Keqiang Index”

作　　者：董雨[1] 张泽宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学管理学院,安徽合肥230000

出　　处：《首都经济贸易大学学报》2016年第4期3-10,共8页Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"‘限额与交易’机制下关注排放的供应链运作优化与契约协调"(71271199)

摘　　要：使用1982—2011年10个国家和地区的国内生产总值、电力消耗量、净国内信贷量和货运量的历史数据可对"克强指数"的应用效果进行检验。此外,针对国内生产总值和净国内信贷量的三种关系,可丰富"克强指数"的内涵,基于这三种关系的解释与实证相符。最后,可基于各国的"克强指数"系数对中国经济发展状况进行再衡量,结果证明使用"克强指数"可以准确地衡量中国经济发展状况。This paper investigates the effectiveness of ＂Keqiang index＂using the historical data of the United States,China,Japan,the European Union,Canada,Russia,Mexico,Korea,Turkey,and Switzerland from 1982 to 2011. The data of GDP,electric consumption,cargo volume on the railways,and the net domestic credit are used to test the effectiveness of ＂Keqiang index＂. Three different types of relationship between GDP and the net domestic credit are proposed,and the different explanations suit the empirical results well. Using other countries＇ or area＇s coefficients to estimate China＇s GDP,the estimations with the United states＇ coefficients and the European Union＇s coefficients show respectively that ＂Keqiang index＂can be used to measure China＇s economy.

关 键 词：克强指数 经济发展 电力消费 净国内信贷量 货运量 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]