金融双轨制与利率市场化  

Dual-track Financing System and Interest Rate Marketization in China

作　　者：纪洋[1] 谭语嫣 黄益平[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学国家发展研究院,100871

出　　处：《经济研究》2016年第6期45-57,共13页Economic Research Journal

摘　　要：中国经济具有金融双轨制的特点——同时存在正规和非正规两个金融市场,且存在价格和数量管制的双重扭曲。价格管制压低正规利率,使资金供不应求,数量管制应对正规市场的失衡,让部分企业优先融资,将其他企业挤到非正规市场。因此,中国的利率市场化需考虑双轨特点,既要减少价格扭曲,又要改变数量扭曲。本文构建了双轨制下的一般均衡模型并佐以数值模拟,发现利率市场化对不同金融市场具有异质性效果,将提高正规市场的融资成本约3.01—3.69个百分点,降低非正规融资成本约0.85—1.19个百分点。进一步研究发现,单纯的价格改革反而会全面推高利率,只有辅以数量改革,才能降低非正规利率,因此要同步推进数量改革与价格改革。China has a dual-track financing system： there exist two financial markets, a formal one and an informal one, and the co-existence is sustained with both price and quantity distortions. The formal interest rate is depressed by price regulation, resulting in a shortage of credit supply, while the quantity regulation allocates credit to certain sectors, crowding out other firms to informal markets. Interest rate liberalization in China should take dual-track system into consideration, where both price and quantity distortions should be corrected. Based on a general equilibrium framework for dual-track financing system, we elaborated on the mechanism of interest rate liberalization with theoretical deduction and numerical simulation. It is found that interest rate liberalization has different effects on different markets, increasing formal interest rate by 3.01--3.69 percentage points and reducing informal rate by 0. 85--1.19 points. It is also shown that the mechanisms are not the same for price and quantity reforms, and the informal rate can only go down with quantity reform.

关 键 词：非正规金融市场 信贷配给 利率市场化 

分 类 号：F832.1[经济管理—金融学]