家庭经济脆弱性与风险规避  

Household Economic Fragility and Risk Aversion

作　　者：张冀[1] 祝伟[1] 王亚柯[1] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学保险学院

出　　处：《经济研究》2016年第6期157-171,共15页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71201029);教育部社科一般项目(15YJA790082);北京市社科一般项目(15JGB090);对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(CXTD5-04)等资助

摘　　要：本文基于期望效用理论构建新的家庭经济脆弱性分析框架,研究死亡风险对我国城市家庭消费的总体影响和异质性影响,为如何规避死亡风险的决策提供证据。结果表明:我国城市居民家庭普遍存在由死亡风险导致的经济脆弱性且比较严重,家庭经济脆弱性程度在20%以上的家庭占全部样本家庭的65%以上;死亡风险导致的家庭消费波动性显著高于消费水平的下降,这意味着采用保险来规避死亡风险比储蓄更有效。尽管家庭持有的寿险保障与面临的经济脆弱性匹配性较好,但寿险持有量不充分且寿险的有效性因家庭异质性存在差异,对3人家庭和35—44岁家庭作用最有效。本文的政策含义在于,脆弱性分析框架不仅能有效度量死亡风险对居民家庭消费和福利的影响,还可以回答居民家庭应如何选择死亡风险规避方式。Under the framework of the expected utility theory, this paper conducts an empirical analysis on household economic fragility to examine the effects of mortality risk on the households＇ consumption and the resulting welfare. We separate the effects of mortality risk into two parts： the averaged decrease of consumption and the fluctuation of consumption. In the analysis, we identify two important features on the effects of mortality risk： intertemporal and heterogeneous. We find that China urban households face a common and severe economic fragility. The households whose economic fragility caused by death is above 20% account for more than 65% of all sample households. Household consumption fluctuation plays a more significant role than the averaged decrease of consumption, implying that to hedge mortality risk, insurance is a more effective tool than saving. However, urban households only hold limited life insurance. In the meantime, life insurance held by households plays an effective role in decreasing their economic vulnerability. The effectiveness of life insurance is different over households： for the household with almost three members or with the 35--44 years-old head, it is most effective, but it seems ineffective for the household with female head. Our results show that not only can our analysis effectively measure the impact of mortality risk on household consumption and welfare, but also can provide guide on how to hedge mortality risk for households, which is helpful for policy making.

关 键 词：死亡风险 家庭消费与福利 家庭经济脆弱性 风险规避 

分 类 号：F063.4[经济管理—政治经济学]