林业合作组织与林权流转意愿的因果研究  

Causal Inference for Participation Effect of Forestry Cooperation on Willingness of Forest Right Circulation

作　　者：董晶[1] 王菲菲[1] 陈骐[1] 文彩云[2] 李扬[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100871 [2]国家林业局经济发展研究中心,北京100714

出　　处：《林业经济》2016年第6期39-45,共7页Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家林业局林业软科学项目"集体林权制度改革监测"(编号:2015-R08)

摘　　要：从因果角度出发,结合潜在结果模型与倾向分方法探讨加入林业合作组织与农户林权流转意愿之间的关系。采用"林权制度改革监测"数据,对福建、甘肃、湖南等7省进行分析。结果显示,除福建、甘肃2个省外,在其他5省参加合作组织均是林权流转意愿提升的原因;平均来看,参加合作组织能促使农户林权流转意愿提升36个百分点。因此,建议加快发展林业合作组织,提升其经营管理效率,并关注其在不同地区的差异。In this paper, we develop our analysis on the casual relationship between participation of forestry cooperation and willingness of forest right circulation with potential outcome model and propensity score method. We adopt the data of 2014 Monitoring Project of the Collective Forest Tenure Reform, and analyze causal effects for Fujian, Gansu and other five provinces. We find out that the causal effects are very significant in most provinces, except for Fujian and Gansu province. On average, participation of forestry cooperation can increase the willingness for forest right circulation with 36 percent. Furthermore, we suggest the policy maker should speed up the development of forestry cooperation, promote the efficiency of management and focus on the distinction of different regions.

关 键 词：林业合作组织 林权流转意愿 因果关系 潜在结果模型 倾向分 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济]