阜新煤矿区生态环境动态演变预测  

Prospective prediction of the dynamic evolution of Fuxin coal mine's ecological environment

作　　者：赵晓亮[1,2] 齐庆杰[1] 李瑞锋[3] 赵国智[4] 赵东洋[1] 张晓薇[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁工程技术大学环境科学与工程学院,辽宁阜新123000 [2]辽宁省煤炭资源安全开采与洁净利用工程研究中心,辽宁阜新123000 [3]中煤科工集团北京华宇工程有限公司西安分公司,西安710061 [4]浙江大学环境与资源学院,杭州310029

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2016年第3期348-353,共6页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：辽宁工程技术大学第五批生产技术问题创新项目(2015-02);辽宁省煤炭资源安全开采与洁净利用工程研究中心开放基金项目(LNTU15KF13)

摘　　要：生态环境因子动态预测是区域生态环境质量动态演变预测的基础。通过对影响煤矿区生态质量的16个指标因子的筛选,建立了自然环境、生态环境及社会经济三维体系下由年开采量等7个指标组成的煤矿区生态环境质量预测指标体系;结合阜新煤矿区生态环境特点,建立了煤矿区生态环境指标因子灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型。根据2003—2012年阜新煤矿区生态环境指标因子环境统计数据,采用数值拟合得出开采量、埋藏深度、地面塌陷面积/开采面积、煤尘爆炸指数、矿区居民人均GDP及矿区经济贡献率6个指标因子的Quadratic模型与年降水量的指数模型。应用煤矿区生态环境指标因子灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型和拟合模型分别对阜新煤矿区2003—2012年煤矿区生态环境进行了指标因子动态演变预测。结果表明,Quadratic模型和指数模型的预测误差相对较小,煤尘爆炸指数指标因子的预测拟合曲线决定系数最高(R2=0.96726)。最后应用Quadratic模型和指数预测模型对2013年阜新煤矿区生态环境指标因子进行了预测,并结合矿区实际环境状况给出了预测模型的适用性。The article is inclined to bring about a prospective study on the dynamic evaluation of Fuxin Coal Mine＇s ecological environment.As is known,the so-called prospective dynamic evaluation of the ecological environment factors has to be based on the dynamic prediction results of the regional ecological environmental quality,usually consisting of 16 index factors that can influence the quality of the ecological environment of the coal mining area.In addition,we have also established the prospective dynamic evaluation index factors constituting the coal mine＇s ecological environmental quality in addition to the other 7 indicators.That is to say,the prospective evaluation of the ecological environment in coal mining area of Fuxin we have established may include the factors of the ecological environment,the social and economic three-dimensional system under the name of the natural environment.Combined with the characteristic features of the ecological environment in the coal mining area of Fuxin,we have set up the prediction model of the coal mine ecological environmental index systems based on the grey system GM（1,1）.The aforementioned numerical fitting method,which is made up of the Quadratic model and the index model of the annual precipitation which is made up totally of six factors,such as the fitting production,the burial depth,the surface subsidence area of the coal dust explosion,the density of the local residents in the mining area,the economic GDP index per capita of the area,and the contribution rate to the country in accordance with the environment statistics of the coal mine ecological environmental index factors from 2003 to2012 in Fuxin.Furthermore,we have applied the grey prediction system GM（1,1） of the coal mine ecological environmental index factors and the original dynamical fitting model respectively for the purpose of prediction.The prediction results have shown that the error of Quadratic prediction model tends to be much simpler than the usual grey prediction models,in which the corre

关 键 词：环境工程学 指标因子 演变 动态预测 拟合 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]