气候变化对江苏省未来水稻灌溉需水量的影响  

Impacts of Climate Change on Future Irrigation Water Requirements of Rice in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：白凯华 韩冰 罗玉峰[4] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210098 [2]河海大学水利水电学院,南京210098 [3]辽宁省水土保持局,沈阳110003 [4]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2016年第6期29-33,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51179048);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301014)

摘　　要：未来我国的气候将继续向变暖的方向发展,最终可能影响水稻需水量与可供水量,成为限制我国水稻生产的主要因素之一。以江苏省为例,利用HadCM3模式A2与B1排放情景下基准期(1961-2000年)以及未来逐月平均气温和降水数据,计算比较了江苏省未来水稻生育期参考作物腾发量ET0、灌溉需水量IR变化规律。结果表明,两种情景ET0、IR总体上均呈上升趋势,且随着时间的推移,变化幅度都呈递增变化,其中A2情景变化幅度更大;IR高值区均位于江苏省北部,空间上大致呈由北至南递减分布;IR增幅最大的时段均在2071-2100年。根据IR在不同地区的变化趋势,提出了相应的灌溉管理应对策略,以期为江苏省水稻生产应对气候变化提供科学依据,降低气候变化对水稻生产的负面影响。Global warming will probably affect water requirements of rice and water supply and thus become the main restricting factor of yield in China. To reveal the relations between climate change and irrigation water requirements of rice （IR）, mean monthly temperature and precipitation of Jiangsu province for the base period （1961--2000） and future under the scenarios of Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 and B1 of HadCM3 Model were collected and used to calculate the reference evapotranspiration （ETo） and irrigation water requirements of rice. The results show that both ETo and IR present increasing trends in the future, the extent con- tinues to increase under the two emission scenarios, and the growth of A2 scenario will be larger than that of B1 scenario. IR decrea- ses from north to south and the Northern Jiangsu has the highest value. The largest increase in IR presents during the period from 2071 to 2100. Based on these changes in different areas, strategies in irrigation management were proposed; the research findings can provide scientific basis for mitigating climate change effects on rice cultivation and production.

关 键 词：气候变化 HadCM3模式 水稻 灌溉需水量 

分 类 号：S27[农业科学—农业水土工程] TV93[农业科学—农业工程]