区域洪水风险管理模型构建及应用  

Regional Flood Risk Management Modeling and Application

作　　者：刘柏君[1] 雷晓辉[2] 权锦[2] 王浩[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2016年第6期72-76,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：环保部公益性行业科研专项经费项目"流域综合规划环境影响评价关键技术研究"(2013467042);国家科技支撑计划"雅砻江流域数字化平台建设及示范应用"(2013BAB05B05);国家"973"计划课题"梯级水库群风险预警与应急处置机理"(2013CB036406);国家科技重大专项项目"水质水量联合调控与应急处置关键技术研究与运行示范"(2012ZX07205);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目"地下水开发与绿洲安全用水关键技术研究"(20131102)

摘　　要：我国是洪涝灾害频发的国家之一,尤其长江在6-10月降雨量大而次多,极易引发洪灾,严重威胁长江沿岸各区域的安全。如何在气候变化和人类活动双重影响的新情势下合理而有效地进行区域洪水风险管理,是一个值得深入研究的问题。通过构建区域洪水风险管理模型,并将其应用于荆江河段区域,推演堤坝溃口条件下区域内洪水变化过程,并评价出洪水对区域内各要素的影响。所构建的模型可靠、实用且结果合理,能够为区域洪水风险管理和水资源保护、防洪减灾措施的制定提供一定的技术支持。China is one of the countries with frequent flood disasters, and it does fall otten with more precipitation especially from June to October in the Yangtze River, which would very easily cause floods, thereby seriously threatening the safety of regions along the Yangtze River. How to manage regional flood risk reasonably and efficiently under the new situation of the joint effects of climatic change and human activities deserves more research. The regional flood risk management model is built and applied in the Jingjiang section of the Yangtze River to derive regional flood processes under the condition of floodwall breaks and the effects of flood on each factor in the region are assessed. The built model is reliable and practical with reasonable results, it would support some sort of tech- nical help for regional flood risk management, water resources protection and decision-making of flood prevention and disaster mitigation.

关 键 词：区域洪水 风险管理 洪水推演 洪水影响评价 荆江段 

分 类 号：S151.23[农业科学—土壤学] TV873[农业科学—农业基础科学]