中国男性婚姻挤压模式研究  

A Study on the Model of Male Marriage Squeeze of China

作　　者：果臻[1] 李树茁[2] Marcus W.Feldman 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学社会学院 [2]西安交通大学人口与发展研究所 [3]斯坦福大学莫里森人口与资源研究所

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2016年第3期69-80,127,共12页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目"农村大龄未婚男性的生存状况及其政策促进研究"(编号:14CRK025)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：随着20世纪80年代以来的高出生性别比队列陆续进入婚姻市场,中国男性婚姻挤压问题日益凸显。在此背景下,文章使用人口普查数据,采用人口学分析方法研究当前中国男性婚姻挤压模式的变动规律,试图完善现有的婚姻挤压理论。研究发现,从时期角度分析,当前中国男性婚姻挤压主要表现为农村地区的超低初婚水平的挤压模式,农村男性初婚概率的年龄分布受挤压明显且平均初婚年龄的变动出现停滞,男性婚姻挤压区域分布相对集中并已出现扩散趋势。从队列角度分析,农村未婚男性受初婚概率偏低和死亡概率偏高的双重挤压,其终身结婚期待率在各个年龄段均低于城镇男性,成婚期望年数则均高于城镇男性,说明农村地区实际婚姻挤压程度比时期指标所反映的更加严重。当前农村男性婚姻挤压状况可能构成未来中国男性总体的婚姻挤压态势。最后,文章给出了当前农村大龄未婚男性年龄的测度依据。China is now undergoing an intensifying marriage squeezing since the cohorts of high sex ratio at birth in 1980 s keep entering into the marriage market. Using censuses data, this paper improves the existing theory of marriage squeeze by analysing the model of China's intensifying marriage squeeze of males in demographic area. The study finds that, from the period perspective, the model of China's marriage squeeze of males in the rural areas shows a distribution of very low level of first marriage.Moreover, the age pattern of probability of first marriage skewed significantly and the average age at first marriage ceased rising.The mappings show that the regional distribution of males' marriage squeeze is beginning to spread out besides convergences in certain squeeze arrears. From the cohort perspective, affected by the lower age- specific probabilities of first marriage and higher age- specific probabilities of death in rural areas, the age- specific percentages of marriage for single survivors in rural areas are lower than that in urban areas, and age- specific years of single life remaining in rural areas are higher than that in urban areas.These two cohort indexes illustrate that China's marriage squeeze of male in rural areas is much severer than the situations revealed by period indexes. The current situation of marriage squeeze of unmarried males in rural areas may constitute future situation of marriage squeeze in whole China.

关 键 词：婚姻挤压模式 大龄未婚男性 平均初婚年龄 年龄测度 

分 类 号：C913.1[经济管理]