浙江省鼠密度对肾综合征出血热发病率的影响  

The impact of the rodent density on the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Zhejiang province

作　　者：王金娜[1] 凌锋[1] 孙继民[1] 张蓉[1] 郭颂[1] 吴瑜燕[1] 侯娟[1] 傅桂明[1] 龚震宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,杭州310051

出　　处：《中国媒介生物学及控制杂志》2016年第3期241-243,247,共4页Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control

基　　金：国家科技重大专项课题(2012ZX10004219)~~

摘　　要：目的分析浙江省鼠密度对肾综合征出血热（HFRS）发病率的影响,为疾病防制措施的制定提供依据。方法收集浙江省2005年1月至2014年12月的鼠密度监测资料及HFRS发病率资料,应用Spearman相关以及线性回归方法进行数据分析。结果浙江省近10年年平均鼠密度为0.88%,褐家鼠为优势鼠种,占总捕鼠数的51.16%;鼠密度与滞后1-4个月的HFRS发病率有相关性,相关系数分别为0.247、0.369、0.328和0.213（P〈0.05）,回归系数检验差异有统计学意义（R2=0.106、0.167、0.134和0.067,P〈0.05）。鼠密度每增加1%,滞后1-4个月的HFRS发病率分别增加0.326/10万、0.409/10万、0.367/10万和0.258/10万。结论浙江省鼠密度影响HFRS发病率,主要体现为滞后效应,应长期开展鼠密度监测,科学实施灭鼠防鼠工作。Objective To analyze the impact of rodent density on the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome （HFRS） in Zhejiang province, and to provide background for the prevention and control of the rodent-borne diseases. Methods The monitoring data of rodent density and the incidence of HFRS were collected from January 2005 to December 2014 in Zhejiang province. Spearman correlation analysis and linear regression method were applied for data analysis. Results The average density of rodents in the last decade was 0.88% in Zhejiang province, and the Rattus norvegicus was the predominant species which accounting for 51.16% of the total number. There was correlation with the rodent density and the incidence of HFRS lagging one month to four months, and the correlation coefficients were 0.247, 0.369, 0.328, and 0.213 respectively （P〈0.05）. The linear regression found that the rodent density was significantly associated with the incidence of HFRS lagging one month to four months （R2=0.106, 0.167, 0.134, and 0.067, P〈0.05）. Every 1% increase in the rodent density, followed by 0.326, 0.409, 0.367 and 0.258 （/100 000） increase in the HFRS incidence lagging one month to four months respectively. Conclusion Rodent density has certain influence on the incidence of HFRS in Zhejiang province. The density monitoring and rodent control should be carried out on a routine basis.

关 键 词：鼠密度 肾综合征出血热 相关 回归 

分 类 号：S443[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治] R373.32[农业科学—植物保护]