吉安市大雾时空分布特征及客观预报方法研究  

Study on Dense Fog Temporal-spatial Distribution Features and Objective Forecasting Method in Jian City

作　　者：王文娟 刘立群 王晓彬 彭永泰 

机构地区：[1]江西省吉安市气象局,江西吉安343000

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2016年第12期247-251,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：利用吉安市11个地面气象观测站2006~2010年气象观测资料,统计分析了吉安市的大雾时空分布特征;基于2006~2010年吉安市84个区域性大雾（≥3站）过程实况资料,对大气环流背景进行天气学分型,并对其成因进行分析,揭示了地形与大雾的关系。通过普查相关气象因子,筛选出与大雾相关性较好的预报因子,采用数理统计方法,建立吉安市大雾能见度预报方程。通过对2013年10月~2014年10月22次区域性大雾（≥3站）过程进行预报效果检验,报对19次,空报0次,漏报3次,预报准确率86.4%,检验效果较理想,体现较好的应用前景。Using weather observation data during 2006-2010 from 11 stations in Jian City,temporal-spatial features of dense fog in Jian City were analyzed;based on 84 regional dense fog live data in Jian City during 2006-2010,weather types were conducted on atmospheric circulation background,causes were analyzed,and the relationship between terrain and fog was revealed.Through reviewing related meteorological factors,forecasting factors having good coorelation with dense fog were obtained.By using mathematical statistics method,visibility forecast equation of fog was established.Through detection of forecast effect of 22 regional fog from Oct.2013 to Oct.2014,correct report 19 times,blank report 0 times,fail to report 3 times,the accuracy rate was 86.4%.The examination effect is ideal,reflecting good application prospect.

关 键 词：大雾 时空分布 天气学分型 预报方法 

分 类 号：S161.5[农业科学—农业气象学]