气候变化对华北农业水资源影响的研究进展  

Influences of climate changes on agricultural water resources in North China Plain

作　　者：莫兴国[1] 夏军[2] 胡实[1] 林忠辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072

出　　处：《自然杂志》2016年第3期189-192,共4页Chinese Journal of Nature

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2010CB428400)资助

摘　　要：水资源是制约华北平原农业稳定和可持续发展的主要因素。气候变化对华北平原水资源和农业需水影响显著。1950年以来,华北平原气候总体趋向于暖干化,潜在蒸散呈下降趋势。近30年实际蒸散量呈现弱的上升趋势,与潜在蒸散有互补关系。未来气候变化情景下,区域水分盈余量下降,华北地区干旱化趋势加重。作物生育期耗水量和灌溉需水量增加,其中北部地区水量亏缺更为严重,南部地区水量盈余则减少。调整春季高耗水作物种植面积和空间布局,减少农业用水量,是适应气候变化的必要途径。Water scarcity affects the stability and sustainable development of agricultural productivity in the North China Plain （NCP）. Climate change has noticeable impacts on agricultural water resources. NCP laced a drying trend since 1950. Although tile potential evapotranspiration in NCP show a decreased trend, the actual evapotranspiration will have an increasing trend in the near 30 years. Even the precipitation will be increasing significantly in the future; the effect of air warming overtakes the precipitation enhancement, leading to a decreasing trend of rainfall surplus, which will exaggerate the drought severity. The increasing trends in crop evapotranspiration and irrigation demand will change the pattern of water balance, the water deficit in north part of NCP will be exaggerated and the rainfall surplus in the south part of NCP will decrease. Adjusting the proportion and pattern of crops with high water consumption, reducing agricultural water consumption are the efficient ways to improve adaptive capabilities of agricultural system.

关 键 词：华北平原 气候变化 水资源量 

分 类 号：S273[农业科学—农业水土工程] P467[农业科学—农业工程]