证券分析师角色:平抑情绪还是随波逐流?  

Analyst roles:Stabilizing mood or swimming?

作　　者：廖明情[1] 邓路[2] 宋顺林[3] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学工商管理学院,广州510640 [2]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191 [3]中央财经大学会计学院,北京100081

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2016年第6期1399-1414,共16页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71402056;71572007;71502183);华南理工大学中央高校基本科研业务费(2015BS16);广州市哲学社会科学发展"十二五"规划项目(15G12)~~

摘　　要：本文通过数学模型推导了买方分析师在纠正卖方分析师乐观偏差的作用.并且,利用基金公司的内部数据,实证检验了两类证券分析师的股票推荐和盈利预测行为与市场情绪的关系.研究发现,市场情绪高涨时,卖方分析师的股票推荐和盈利预测行为都更加乐观.相反,买方分析师的股票推荐和盈利预测行为在市场情绪高涨时都更加谨慎.进一步分析证实,市场情绪与分析师推荐和预测行为的关系在两类分析师之间有显著差异.研究结果表明,卖方分析师在市场情绪作用下可能只是随波逐流,但买方分析师能够纠正卖方分析师的乐观偏差,并且在一定程度上起到平抑市场情绪的作用.研究结果对中国资本市场的发展有重要启示.In this paper, we first use a simple mathematic model to infer the role of buy-side analysts in correcting the optimistic stock recommendation and earning forecast of sell-side analysts, and then investigating the relationship between investor sentiment and optimistic stock recommendation and earning forecast in those two types of analysts. The results show that, when the market sentiment is higher, the stock recommendation and earning forecast are more optimistic for sell-side analysts, whereas the stock recommendation and earning forecast are more conservative for buy-side analysts. Further evidence con^rm that the relationship between in market sentiment and stock recoramendation and earning forecast are significantly different between buy-side analysts and sell-side analysts. Our findings have import implications for stock market development in China.

关 键 词：市场情绪 证券分析师 股票推荐 盈利预测 乐观性 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]