基于贝叶斯网络的舰船目标毁伤评估  

Warship-damage Assessment Based on Bayesian Networks

作　　者：马晓明[1,2] 丁平[1] 晏卫东[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军92941部队 [2]哈尔滨工程大学船舶工程学院

出　　处：《兵工自动化》2016年第6期72-75,共4页Ordnance Industry Automation

摘　　要：为制定对目标舰船实施后续打击等计划提供有效支持,针对舰船目标毁伤评估问题的复杂性和困难,利用贝叶斯网络在不确定性推理计算方面的优势,采用Ge NIe软件建立目标舰船毁伤评估的贝叶斯网络,并以某型舰船为例,根据舰船目标的物理结构层次、功能结构层次和毁伤模式等特征,依据专家评估确定贝叶斯网络节点条件概率分布,在舰船目标物理毁伤及遭受攻击前后运动的变化状况等情报分析的基础上进行推理评估。结果表明,该方法能很好地实现舰船目标作战效能与目标物理毁伤程度映射关系的量化分析。For establishment plan to attack target warship again etc. provide an effective reference, according to the complexity and difficulty of the warship-damage assessment, in view of the advantages of the Bayesian network in processing indefinite information, base on the structure layer and injured mode and function characteristic of warship target, build up the model of Bayesian networks for assessing the damage of the warship by Ge NIe. Base on the analysis about the physics injures and moving intelligence of warship target, inferring and assessing the result, and according to the experts＇ judgment to make sure the node conditional probability distribute. The model can nicely carry out the effect of battle and physics injure degree to reflect the quantity of shooting the relation turn analysis.

关 键 词：贝叶斯网络 舰船毁伤评估 GENIE 概率分布 

分 类 号：TJ06[兵器科学与技术—兵器发射理论与技术]