老龄社会对日本经济增长与刺激政策的影响分析  

An Analysis of the Influence of the Aging Society on the Economic Growth and the Stimulus Policy of Japan

作　　者：马学礼[1] 陈志恒[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学东北亚研究院,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学东北亚研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《现代日本经济》2016年第4期83-94,共12页Contemporary Economy OF Japan

基　　金：2011年度国家社科基金项目"低碳经济全球博弈与我国的对策研究"(11BJY060);2012年度教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目"中;日;俄油气资源竞争与合作研究"(12JJD810004)

摘　　要：对于日本经济长期低迷的成因,学术界从不同的视角给予了解读和反思。从人口-经济长周期波动视角看,日本老龄社会的不断深化拉低了日本经济的潜在增长率,并削弱了传统需求管理手段刺激经济增长的政策效果。而由于人口惯性的作用,日本超老龄的人口年龄结构还将继续深化,人口总量和劳动力规模将持续萎缩,这必将长期影响日本经济的发展前景。我国应吸取日本的教训,尽早出台相关政策,完善政策配套,全面应对老龄社会带来的风险。For the cause of Japan＇s long - term economic downturn, the academic community gives the interpretation and reflection from different perspectives. From the perspective of a long - periodic population and economic fluctuation, the root of Japan＇s continued economic stagnation is that the deepening of the aging society has pulled down the potential growth rate of Japan＇s economy and has weakened the the policy effect of traditional demand management method to stimulate the economic growth. Due to the impact of demographic inertia, Japanese hyper - aging population age structure will continue to deepen. The total population and labor scale will be shrinking and it will be a long - term impact on the development prospects of the Japanese economy. We should learn lessons from Japan and introduce relevant policies as soon as possible and improve the matching policy so as to cope with risks of aging population.

关 键 词：老龄社会 经济增长 刺激政策 潜在经济产出 劳动力不足 

分 类 号：F133.134.1[经济管理—世界经济]