新疆阿克苏地区人工防雹作业效果研究  

Statistical Evaluation of Hail Suppression Effect in Akesu,Xinjiang

作　　者：李斌[1] 郑博华 史莲梅[1] 朱思华[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区人工影响天气办公室,乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《新疆农业科学》2016年第5期942-948,共7页Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项经费项目(GYHY201306047);科技支撑项目(TUHA201525)

摘　　要：【目的】客观评估新疆阿克苏地区人工防雹作业前后年雹灾面积系统性差异,分析该地区人工防雹作业效果。【方法】利用阿克苏地区1978-2013年的年雹灾面积数据,以1996年作为人工防雹作业开始年,运用序列检验、不成对秩和检验以及Welch检验等统计学方法,对科学开展人工防雹作业前后各18 a的年雹灾面积系统性差异进行分析。【结果】阿克苏地区科学开展人工防雹作业后冰雹灾害明显减少,非参数性不成对秩和检验显著性水平为0.05,参数性Welch检验显著性水平高达0.01,平均年雹灾面积减少15 063 hm2,相对减少率为43.14%。结合农业经济数据,年平均减少雹灾损失28 109×104元,年投入产出比为1∶6,统计显著性水平达到0.1。【结论】阿克苏地区人工防雹作业后,冰雹灾害损失明显减小,减灾的社会、经济效益显著。【Objective】To objectively evaluate the systematic differences of annual hailstorm areas before and after the scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression period in Akesu in the hope of analyzing the effect.【Method】In this project,the sequence test,unpaired rank sum test and Welch test and other statistical methods were applied,the systematic differences of annual hailstorm areas before and after 18 a of the scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression period in Akesu were analyzed with annual hailstorm areas data from 1978- 2013 in Akesu with 1996 as the year of artificial hail suppression. 【Result 】The results showed that it is obvious that the hail disasters decreased after the operation of scientifically artificial hail suppression in Akesu. The non- parameter unpaired rank and inspection significance level was 0. 05,and parametric Welch inspection significance level was as high as 0. 01. The average annual hail area was reduced 15,063 hm2,and the relative loss rate was 43. 14%. Combined with the agricultural economic data,the average annual reduction of hail disaster loss was 281,090,000 RMB,annual input and output ratio was 1∶ 6. The statistical significant level reached α = 0. 1.【Conclusion】Therefore,after scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression operations,it is obvious that hail disaster losses reduced and the social and economic benefits are great.

关 键 词：人工防雹 统计检验 效果评估 阿克苏 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]