深埋长大隧道突水突泥风险后果评价模型研究  

Research on the Comprehensive Evaluation Model of Water Inrush and Mud Outburst Risk Consequences for Deeply Buried Long and Large Tunnel

作　　者：李集[1] 戎晓力[1] 卢浩[1] 夏沅谱 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军理工大学国防工程学院,南京210007

出　　处：《地下空间与工程学报》2016年第3期810-818,共9页Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering

基　　金：973计划(2013CB36005)

摘　　要：根据对影响深埋长大隧道突水突泥风险后果的主要方面的分析,得到深埋长大隧道突水突泥风险后果综合评价模型参评指标并构建出评价指标体系;基于改进灰色关联度的权重确定方法或层次分析法,通过专家调查和分析数据确定参评各级指标的权重系数值,并建立评判标准。在此基础上,基于三角白化权函数的灰色评估建立白化权函数,利用灰色聚类理论通过综合聚类系数矩阵得到模糊隶属度矩阵,再利用模糊评价方法评估深埋长大隧道突水突泥风险后果程度,完成深埋长大隧道突水突泥风险后果综合评价模型的构造。最后,结合象山隧道工程实例,对该隧道突水突泥风险后果进行综合评价,结果与象山隧道实际突水突泥情况一致,证明了该评价模型的有效性和可行性。According to the analysis of the main effects on water inrush and mud outburst risk consequences of the deeply buried long and large tunnel,the comprehensive evaluation model index system for water inrush and mud outburst risk consequences is established.Based on the improved method of grey relation grade analysis definite key elements weights or AHP by the experts investigation and the data analysis,the participating index weights value on different levels are obtained,the evaluation criteria are also established. On this basis,whitenization weight function is established by the grey evaluation of triangular whitenization weight function,using the grey clustering theories for fuzzy subjection matrix by calculating the comprehensive clustering coefficients matrix,and adopting fuzzy algorithm assessment for evaluating the consequences seriousness of water inrush and mud outburst risk. A comprehensive evaluation for deeply buried long and large tunnel consequences seriousness of water inrush and mud outburst risk is made. Finally,the consequences comprehensive evaluation of water inrush and mud outburst risk is made with Xiangshan tunnel project,the results show that the theoretical results are consistent with the actual situation which proves the evaluation of the model is effective and feasible.

关 键 词：深埋长大隧道 突水突泥 风险后果评价 灰色关联度分析 层次分析法 模糊灰色综合评价 

分 类 号：TU94[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]