The IOCAS intermediate coupled model(IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015–2016 El Nio event  

作　　者：Rong-Hua Zhang 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves,Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Qingdao 266071, China [2]Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology,Qingdao 266237, China [3]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049, China

出　　处：《Science Bulletin》2016年第13期1061-1070,共10页科学通报（英文版）

基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41490644,41475101 and41421005);the CAS Strategic Priority Project;the Western Pacific Ocean System(XDA11010105,XDA11020306 and XDA11010301);the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(U1406401)

摘　　要：The tropical Pacific is currently experiencing an El Nifio event. Various coupled models with different degrees of complexity have been used to make real-time E1 Nifio predictions, but large uncertainties exist in the inten- sity forecast and are strongly model dependent. An intermediate coupled model （ICM） is used at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences （IOCAS）, named the IOCAS ICM, to predict the sea surface temper- ature （SST） evolution in the tropical Pacific during the 2015-2016 E! Nifio event. One unique feature of the IOCAS ICM is the way in which the temperature of subsurface water entrained in the mixed layer （Te） is parameterized. Observed SST anomalies are only field that is utilized to initialize the coupled prediction using the IOCAS ICM. Examples are given of the model＇s ability to predict the SST conditions in a real-time manner. As is commonly evident in E1 Nifio- Southern Oscillation predictions using coupled models, large discrepancies occur between the observed and pre- dicted SST anomalies in spring 2015. Starting from early summer 2015, the model can realistically predict warming conditions. Thereafter, good predictions can be made through the summer and fall seasons of 2015. A transition to normal and cold conditions is predictecl to occur in rote spring 2016. Comparisons with other model predictions are made and factors influencing the prediction performance of the IOCAS ICM are also discussed.The tropical Pacific is currently experiencing an El Nio event. Various coupled models with different degrees of complexity have been used to make real-time El Nio predictions, but large uncertainties exist in the intensity forecast and are strongly model dependent. An intermediate coupled model(ICM) is used at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences(IOCAS),named the IOCAS ICM, to predict the sea surface temperature(SST) evolution in the tropical Pacific during the2015–2016 El Nio event. One unique feature of the IOCAS ICM is the way in which the temperature of subsurface water entrained in the mixed layer(T_e) is parameterized. Observed SST anomalies are only field that is utilized to initialize the coupled prediction using the IOCAS ICM. Examples are given of the model's ability to predict the SST conditions in a real-time manner. As is commonly evident in El Nio Southern Oscillation predictions using coupled models,large discrepancies occur between the observed and predicted SST anomalies in spring 2015. Starting from early summer 2015, the model can realistically predict warming conditions. Thereafter, good predictions can be made through the summer and fall seasons of 2015. A transition to normal and cold conditions is predicted to occur in late spring 2016. Comparisons with other model predictions are made and factors influencing the prediction performance of the IOCAS ICM are also discussed.

关 键 词：The 2015 E1 Nifio event IOCAS ICM Real-time prediction Model performance and improvement Air-sea interactions 

分 类 号：P732.6[天文地球—海洋科学] TE28[石油与天然气工程—油气井工程]