1998-2012年中国省际灰水足迹效率测度与驱动模式分析  

Grey water footprint efficiency measure and its driving pattern analysis on provincial scale in China from 1998 to 2012

作　　者：韩琴[1] 孙才志[1] 邹玮[2] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,大连116029 [2]辽宁师范大学外国语学院,大连116029

出　　处：《资源科学》2016年第6期1179-1191,共13页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(11BJY063);教育部新世纪优秀人才项目(NECT-13-0844)

摘　　要：水资源短缺与污染已经严重影响到中国的可持续发展,提高水资源效率是解决两者的必然选择。在测算中国31个省市(自治区)1998-2012年灰水足迹及其效率的基础上,本文基于扩展的Kaya恒等式和LMDI模型定量分析了效率效应、结构效应、经济效应、禀赋效应、开发效应及技术效应对灰水足迹效率的影响,最后利用LSE模型按驱动效应的绝对贡献率将各省份进行了分类。分析结果显示:研究期间中国平均灰水足迹为4814.30亿m3,灰水足迹效率由1998年的16.30元/m3增加到2012年的89.32元/m3,整体上呈现经济发达地区高于落后地区的特征;效率效应、经济效应、开发效应及技术效应对灰水足迹效率的变化起正向驱动效应,结构效应与禀赋效应对灰水足迹效率的变化起负向驱动效应,其中效率效应、经济效应是影响灰水足迹效率变化的最主要因素;中国灰水足迹效率空间驱动类型主要包括双因素支配型(Ⅰ、Ⅱ)、三因素主导型、四因素协同型(Ⅰ、Ⅱ)、五因素联合型等6种类型。研究结果可为水资源利用效率提供新的研究思路同时为区域水资源的合理利用提供理论支持。This paper estimated the grey water footprint according to normal assessing standards for water footprint combined with GDP data. The grey water footprint efficiency of 31 provinces in China from 1998 to 2012 was measured. Using the extended Kaya identity and LMDI method, the impacts of efficiency effect, structure effect, economic effect, endowment effect, development effect and technique effect on grey water footprint efficiency were examined. We also calculated the average of the absolute contribution rate of effect decomposition of grey water footprint efficiency in China, and the LSE model was applied to determine the spatial driver. The results clearly indicate that during the study period the average grey water footprint in China was 4814.30 x 10Sm3, and grey water footprint efficiency went from 16.30 CNY per cubic meter in 1998 to 89.32 CNY per cubic meter in 2012. Economically developed areas were higher than economically backward regions. The efficiency effect, economic effect, development effect and technique effect have positive impacts on grey water footprint efficiency;the structure effect and endowment effect have negative effects on grey water footprint efficiency; the effect of grey water footprint efficiency changes mainly because of the efficiency effect and economic effect. Grey water footprint efficiency space drive types of China including two factors effect type, two factors effect type II, three factors effect, four factors effect type I, four factors effect type II and five factors effect. The results of the research provide new ideas for research into water use efficiency and provide theoretical support for the rational utilization of regional water resources.

关 键 词：灰水足迹 驱动效应 水资源利用效率 驱动模式 中国 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]